What the 2011 Census numbers tell us

A comparison of the projections made by the registrar-general in May 2006 and the provisional results reported, shows that the population total is 17.7 million more than what was expected in 2006, a discrepancy of about 1.5 per cent or about a year’s population growth.

A big part of this difference is in Bihar, where the provisional population numbers are 6.1 million (i.e. 6.2 per cent) higher than what was projected. The tribal states of Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh also show a similar pattern, with a discrepancy relative to the projections, which is significantly above the national average. West Bengal’s and Assam’s population numbers are about two per cent above the 2006 projections. The North-Eastern states (other than Nagaland and Tripura) are off the projection by a large margin, ranging from 8.6 per cent to 13.1per cent.
 

Census 2011: Projections and actuals
	2006 Projection ('000)	Provisional population  ('000)	Percentage discrepancy (%)
India	1,192,506	1,210,193	1.5
Jammu & Kashmir	11,718	12,549	7.1
Himachal Pradesh	6,793	6,857	0.9
Punjab	27,678	27,704	0.1
Chandigarh	1,438	1,055	-26.7
Uttarakhand	9,943	10,117	1.7
Haryana	25,439	25,353	-0.3
NCT of Delhi	18,451	16,753	-9.2
Rajasthan	67,830	68621	1.2
Uttar Pradesh	200,764	199581	-0.6
Bihar	97,720	103805	6.2
Sikkim	612	608	-0.7
Arunachal Pradesh	1,241	1383	11.4
Nagaland	2,249	1981	-11.9
Manipur	2,449	2722	11.1
Mizoram	1,004	1091	8.7
Tripura	3616	3671	1.5
Meghalaya	2621	2964	13.1
Assam	30,568	31169	2.0
West Bengal	89,499	91348	2.1
Jharkhand	31,472	32966	4.7
Orissa	40,750	41947	2.9
Chhattisgarh	24,258	25540	5.3
Madhya Pradesh	72,200	72598	0.6
Gujarat	59,020	60384	2.3
Dadra & Nagar Haveli	354	343	-3.1
Maharashtra	112,660	112373	-0.3
Andhra Pradesh	84,735	84666	-0.1
Karnataka	59,419	61131	2.9
Goa	1,767	1458	-17.5
Daman & Diu	270	243	-10.0
Lakshadweep	76	64	-15.2
Kerala	34,563	33388	-3.4
Tamil Nadu	67,444	72139	7.0