Wind energy dips in peak season; industry fears climate change impact

July fetches the highest generation in wind energy, but this time the annual fall was as much as 40 per cent in some regions

India’s wind energy generation fell by 16 per cent in its peak season this year: a decline the industry reckons is the impact of climate change. July fetches the highest generation, but this time the annual fall was as much as 40 per cent in some regions.

As India builds mega renewable energy projects to meet its climate change targets, drastic weather fluctuations and natural calamities blamed on climate change is hurting renewable energy projects.

Data compiled by REConnect Energy, a Bangalore-based energy management services company, said new wind projects increased in two years, but power generation fell by double digits. Leading wind power players--ReNew Power, Hero Future Energies, Adani Green Energy, and Greenko--have wind power units in western and the southern India.

High-wind generation coincides with the monsoon season (June-August) in these regions. According to data sourced from the industry, around 30 to 50 per cent of annual wind power is generated during this period.

“This year has been a special case where monsoon rains seem to have arrived in aggregate but the distribution and intensity of monsoon rains has been fragmented. Along with unusual rains, energy carrying winds across the country have been sporadic. For the western, southern and northern regions, reduction in generation of 11-17 per cent was noticed (even without adjusting for increased capacity in 2020 against 2019),” said the report by REConnect Energy, reviewed by Business Standard.

The report said climate change-related disturbances in weather patterns across South Asia region led to fall in wind power generation. March, April and May witnessed higher than normal rainfalls across India, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cyclone Amphan which hit the eastern coast of India and Bangladesh in mid-May, caused high wind and heavy rains leading to floods in the coastal regions.

Cyclone Nisarga hit the western coast of India in June 2020 a few weeks after Cyclone Amphan. Nisarga was of lower severity in comparison to Amphan but caused heavy rain and extreme winds.

“The rains and cyclonic activity in pre-monsoon months led to lower than expected temperatures in many parts of northern India. These cooler lands may have caused depressed general wind flows and rains over much of the country in the monsoon period,” REConnect said in its analysis.

 

Asim Ahmed, head of engineering, REConnect Energy, said the impact of climate change is not exclusive to the renewables sector. “The broader picture is around increasing instances of extreme weather events and weather induced uncertainties which will affect not only several businesses but also critical infrastructure. These events can be better planned for and mitigated with timely predictions and monitoring,” Ahmed said.

The reduction in generation during high wind months would lead to loss in revenue to wind power developers. The wind power industry is now planning to factor in the climate variations in their generation planning and costs. Wind Independent Power Producers Association, for instance, has recently commissioned a study to understand the impact of climate change; sudden weather changes on the cost of wind power projects and subsequently on wind power tariff.

“The current and potential wind power sites are already identified so we cannot change the sites for our projects. However, as wind generation would reduce from these sites, it would entail increased expenditure on new technology and wind turbine equipment, resulting in increased tariff,” said Sunil Jain, chief executive officer, Hero Future Energies.

The company’s initial analysis shows wind patterns seem to be declining in northern and western regions of the country. But, there is a probability of increased wind pattern in the southern region. This would impact the planning for wind power projects and its injection in the grid, which requires forecasting well in advance.