Cross currents at work in Telangana

On average, 15 candidates for a single Lok Sabha and 14 candidates for a single Assembly constituency are in the fray. The Amberpet Assembly segment in Hyderabad has the highest number of 32 candidates. More than 15 candidates are present in 8 Lok Sabha and 31 Assembly constituencies making the fight out there as close as possible.

Surveys  are anticipating a fractured outcome with no single party in a position to reach the half-way mark to form the government on its own in the 119-seat Assembly to be constituted by June 2. But opinions are divided on the question of which party would likely emerge as the single largest with some favouring the TRS while others expecting the Congress to get the top place.

The election campaign was largely centered around the achievement of statehood for Telangana and the aspirations associated with the statehood demand such as jobs to locals, economic development and social justice.

Congress  leaders, including party president Sonia Gandhi, vice president Rahul Gandhi besides Prime Minister Manmohan Singh  had addressed election rallies and reminded the people of Telangana that it was the Congress, which made their dream for the separate statehood come true. They had also said the aspirations would only get fulfilled with the Congress at the helm of affairs both in the state as well as at the Centre.

TRS president K Chandrasekhara Rao countered the Congress’ claim by stating that the achievement of Telangana was a job half done only and without  the TRS in government, the purpose for which people had fought a long battle will be defeated.

With the two parties that were seen as natural allies post-bifurcation now fighting against each other, the positive euphoria generated among the voters by the declaration of Telangana has failed to become a wave in favour of any one single party and has thus ended up in cross currents, according to observers.

“Even in Medak district where KCR is contesting from one  Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat no clear wave is visible. Strong candidates are going strong while in the case of some candidates who were ministers in the previous Congress government, there is a clear anti-incumbency factor working against them,”a senior journalist stationed in the district observed. In Mahabubnagar district  and some other places,  the TRS is facing a tough time especially where it had given tickets to newcomers not known for their active involvement in the Telangana agitation.   

However certain sections of  voters appear  to have made up their mind in favour of TRS. According to reports, new voters, scheduled tribes and government employees seem to be in favour of the TRS even in south Telangana districts  (Nalgonda and Mahabubnagar) where it is organisationally very poor. On the other hand, a large number of people from Seemandhra who are staying in Hyderabad and other parts of Telangana are likely to vote for the Congress.

Though Muslim voters are expected to go with the MIM in Hyderabad and with the Congress party in other places, Congress central minister Ghulam Nabi Azad had to tour extensively in Muslim-populated places like Sangareddy, Andole and Zahirabad recently as it was not very sure of their local preferences.

According to a senior leader of the Telangana Joint Action Committee (TJAC), the TRS may not be able to turn the ground swell of support into votes in several districts in South Telangana as it lacks grassroot level network unlike the Congress.  “Except for some anti-incumbency factor in the sitting seats everything should equally work in favour of the Congress party. One should not be surprised if the Congress gets full majority to be able to form the government on its own,” he said.

While it is unclear as to who will gain most out of the triangular contests prevailed in most of the constituencies, the alliance partners — TDP-BJP — are hoping to win seats mostly in south Telangana districts. Surveys have given third place to the TDP-BJP combine in the Telangana region leaving the first two slots to the Congress and the TRS .

A secret ballot survey conducted during April 20-25 in the Nizamabad Parliamentary constituency (north), which is a sitting Congress seat, gave 43.8 per cent votes to the TRS candidate KCR’s daughter Kavitha and 29.3 per cent votes to the Congress’ Madhu Yashki Goud, who’s seeking reelection. Around 25.4 per cent of those who participated in the secret ballot survey preferred the BJP.