Riot-scarred UP districts clock higher voting

The riots had led to a polarisation of votes on community lines, a new phenomenon in the mixed ethnicity of western UP comprising Jats, Muslims, Gujjars, Dalits, Other Backward Castes (OBC), Rajputs, etc.

Muzaffarnagar, the epicenter of riots, saw its voting percentage rise to 68.27 per cent against 55.36 per cent in 2009, an increase of 13 per cent.

The riots’ cascading effect had hit Saharanpur, Kairana, Meerut and Baghpat, which witnessed increase of over 12 per cent in voting compared to 2009.

“The polarisation would benefit both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) at the expense of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),” Lucknow University professor and political observer Professor Sudhir Panwar told Business Standard.

He said while Muslims are likely to rally behind SP, which is seen as best placed to defeat the BJP, the Jats, OBCs and the Dalits would rally behind the BJP due to polarisation. “The committed Dalit cadre of the BSP could still stay with the party though,” he claimed.

Panwar said the higher voting percentage would per se benefit the BJP, as Muslims have always been more regular voters than their Hindu counterparts.

The polls could also lead to the erosion of already dwindling base of Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) in the region.

“Over the last 15-20 years, the political leadership in several western UP constituencies had gone into the hands of Muslims leaders due to Muslims’ tactical voting and the strategy of the BSP, SP and RLD. However, the riots seem to have changed these dynamics,” he said.

The anti-incumbency factor and the pending sugarcane dues had also been simmering of late, which would benefit the main opposition party, the BJP.