Chhattisgarh Assembly polls: BJP battles anti-incumbency, falling growth

Though Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh has focused on education, health and family welfare, there is still a long way to go

On Monday, when 18 of the 90 seats go to polls in Chhattisgarh, three-time Chief Minister Raman Singh may be a little worried. After all, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) barely scraped through with a lead of 0.7 per cent votes over the Congress in 2013. 

What favours him is a fragmented opposition, as main rival Congress is contesting alone and an alliance between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the newly formed Chhattisgarh Janata Congress may have little impact. And, of course, an economy which isn't doing very badly. 

According to data from Niti Aayog, Chhattisgarh's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has slowed down from a high of 9.8 per cent in 2013-14 to 6.6 per cent in 2017-2018, but it's almost equal to the Indian economy's Gross Domestic Product growth rate at 6.7 per cent. 

What is impressive is the state's consistent focus on health and education. During Singh's 15-year stint, spending on education as a proportion of aggregate expenditure rose from 12.3 per cent in 2004-05 - his first budget - to 18.2 per cent in 2018-19. Similarly, spending on health and family welfare rose from 3.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent in the same period. While in his current five-year term, the state's education-to-aggregate expenditure fell from 20.2 per cent to 18.2 per cent, spending on health and family welfare continued to see a steady increase. 

However, the state continues to languish among the worst five in the country in multidimensional poverty, according to a Multidimensional Poverty Index report recently released by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and United Nations Development Programme. Its percentage in the state stood at 36 per cent in 2015-16, down from 70 per cent in 2005-2006. Bihar tops this list at 52 per cent, followed by Jharkhand (46 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (41 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (40 per cent) and Assam, Chhattisgarh and Odisha (36 per cent). Overall, Singh's performance has been mixed. 

Expansion in fiscal deficit… In the initial years under Singh, the state's fiscal deficit achieved a low of 1.4 per cent of GSDP in 2016-17, from 3.4 per cent in 2014-15. However, subsequently, it deteriorated sharply, rising to three per cent in 2017-18. And though the government projected a decline to 2.8 per cent in 2018-19 (BE), it again expects the number to rise to 3.5 per cent in 2019-20 and 2020-21. 

The state's revenue expenditure rose from Rs481 billion in 2016-17 to Rs653 billion in 2017-18 (revised estimate), implying an increase of Rs172 billion. In comparison, revenue receipts rose by a smaller amount - from Rs536 billion in 2016-17 to Rs685 billion in 2017-18 (RE). These estimates are based on a report by PRS Legislative Research. 

...but low debt and interest burden: Chhattisgarh's debt-to-GSDP ratio rose from 12.6 per cent in 2014 to 17.4 per cent in 2018-19 (budget estimate). But despite the rise, it is lower than the upper limit of 25 per cent set by the 14th Finance Commission. Its interest payments-to-revenue receipts ratio stands at 5.3 per cent in 2018-19, as against the upper limit of 10 per cent set by the Finance Commission. 

In May 2016, the Centre permitted states that restricted interest payments to or below 10 per cent of their revenue receipts, debt below 25 per cent of their GSDP, and had a balanced or surplus revenue account, to avail borrowing of an additional 0.5 per cent of GSDP. 

"Chhattisgarh meets many of these criteria, which may have prompted the state government to indicate a fiscal deficit to GSDP ratio of 3.5 per cent in its medium-term fiscal policy," said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at Icra. 

Surprisingly, the state has been conservative in its revenue and expenditure projections in an election year. For 2018-19, it has projected total expenditure to grow by a mere six per cent, down from 36 per cent in the previous year. Similarly, revenue receipts are also pegged to grow at six per cent in 2018-19, from 28 per cent the year before. 

Capital expenditure (capex) rises: Besides consistent expenditure on education, health and family welfare, Singh scores on capex as well. The state's total capex rose from 2.8 per cent of GSDP in 2014-15 to 3.36 per cent in 2016-17, and further to 4.44 per cent in 2018-19 (budgeted estimates). Much of this increase is on infrastructure, especially on building roads and bridges in the state. 

Of all three states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — going to poll, the 10-14 age group was the most populous in the latter, according to Census 2011. They will now be in the 18-21 age group and going to vote with aspirations like jobs and a better life. Can Singh meet their aspirations?

Jawan killed in Maoist attack, rebel shot dead
 
A Border Security Force (BSF) personnel was killed when Maoists detonated an improvised explosive device  in Chhattisgarh on Sunday, a day ahead of the first phase of Assembly polls in the state. A Maoist was also gunned down in an encounter with police in a separate incident.
 
 Inspector General of Police (Raipur range) Dipanshu Kabra said a team of the BSF was out on an area domination operation in view of the polls on Monday when Maoists blew up the IED in a forest in Kanker district, around 200 km from the state capital Raipur.

- PTI
 
Tight security for 1st phase
 
Nearly 100,000 security personnel have been deployed in the Maoist-affected districts going to polls in the first phase in Chhattisgarh on Monday, amid threat from Maoists who have called for a boycott of the elections.
 
Voting will be held on Monday in 18 seats spread over eight Naxal-affected districts in the state.

-PTI