Four crucial messages emerging from the Mayawati-Mulayam kiss-and-make-up

If the intended missives are able to percolate the grassroots, the gathbandhan may evolve stronger and create a triangular tussle for power between the SP-BSP combine, the BJP and the Congress

When Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav recently held a joint rally in Mainpuri in which the Bahujan Samaj Party chief appealed to the public to vote for Mulayam Singh Yadav, it created a new political frame that sough to bury the long-standing animosity between the BSP and the Samajwadi Party. It may be recalled that the two parties fell out in response to the 'guesthouse scandal' in Lucknow 24 years ago, when the Mayawati outfit's withdrawal of support to the coalition led to the collapse of Mulayam Singh government in 1995.

But in this rally, Mayawati, seated between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav, accorded full respect to the SP patriarch when he came on the dais. The body language of the three leaders reflected good chemistry between these once political rivals. Mulayam Singh Yadav appealed to his supporters to respect Mayawati, stating that she always extended support when it was needed. Mayawati, on her part, appealed strongly to her supporters to vote for Mulayam Singh and the gathbandhan in this election, asserting that he was the real leader of the backward classes, unlike Narendra Modi, whom she called a fake backward. What are the messages that emerged from this joint rally and what will their impact be in the 2019 elections long-term politics of Uttar Pradesh?

The first is that Mayawati was trying hard to convince her followers to support Mulayam Singh Yadav and other candidates of the gathbandhan, most of whom  are Samajwadi leaders in a region in which the third phase of polling will take place in UP. This domain is typically a Yadav bastion and is famously called ‘Yadav-Land’, although it has a sizeable population of Muslims as well. The constituencies here include Sambhal, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Aonla, Bareilly, and Pilibhit. This is an area where the Yadavs own lands on which many Dalits work as landless labourers. It is also a region in which an emergent rural and urban Dalit middle class is lending voice to its weaker brethren.

One may find reports a great deal of atrocities being committed on Dalits by the dominant sections of society. And it is this factor that is making it difficult for Mayawati and her party leaders to urge their followers to transfer their votes in the favour of Samajwadi candidates, especially the Yadavs. Recognising this problem, the BSP has already instructed its cadres, mandal coordinators and leaders to reach out to the Dalit bastis and urge them to support the gathbandhan candidates. Mayawati has also activated party 'bhaichara samitis', or brotherhood committees, in order to create some chemistry between the Yadavs and Dalits and mobilise the support of these two factions. In order to convince her supporters, she has also made this crucial statement: Janhit aur partyhit me kabhi kabhi bade faisale lene padte hain (Sometime we need to take big decisions in the interest of the party and the people).

The second message that emerges from this rally is that the relationship between these two parties may not just end here, but may continue for the next few elections, especially the 2022 Vidhan Sabha polls. 

Mayawati introduced her nephew and probable successor, Aakash Anand, to Mulayam, who who gave him his blessings. This posture shows that Mayawati sees an enduring relationship between her party and the SP -- one that may spill over to the next generation og BSP politicians.

The third message for the supporters of these two leaders. Mayawati and Mulayam, is that they need to be more accommodative towards each other and respect each other's local cadres, leaders and role models. 

Fourthly, the two social blocks -- the Dalits (especially the Jatavs and the OBC (especially the Yadavs_ -- will form the basis of a social alliance that could change the dynamics of Uttar Pradesh politics in the long run. It is also clear that Mayawati and Akhilesh will remain together in any decision they may take for the politics of the Centre in the near future. And with the BJP and Congress remaining other pillars in the UP political set up, it appears that UP politics will be triangular going forward.

If these messages are able to percolate the grassroots, the gathbandhan may evolve stronger in this region. But we need to wait to see the impact of such rallies for a few more weeks. 

Badri Narayan is the Director of the G B Pant Social Science Institute in Allahabad. He tweets @poetbadri