Kerala polls: Left is still right in this old bastion

The victory of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front might have been expected in the anti-incumbency script played out in Kerala every five years but the sheer numbers with which the Left (91 seats) overcame the Congress alliance (46), are a far cry from the close contest that had put Oommen Chandy in power the last time.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) opening its account in Kerala, albeit with one seat, is significant considering the party upped its vote share in a state that has generally witnessed bipolar contests. The majority mark is 71 in this 140-seat Assembly.

That the LDF registered such a sweeping victory was in no small measure due to the popularity of the 92-year-old VS Achuthanandan, who won in Malampuzha with over 27,000 votes. The action in Kerala, as analysts predict, will take place now to see who ultimately occupies the chief minister's chair, the nonagenarian or Pinarayi Vijayan. It was the burying of the hatchet between the two senior leaders that contributed to the large victory margin of the LDF.

The toehold in Kerala was celebrated by a jubilant BJP chief Amit Shah who underscored the fact that the party's vote share had increased in the state from six per cent to 15 per cent. The BJP's sole winner, O Rajagopal, who won from Nemom in Trivandrum, is a former minister in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Incidentally, the BJP has clocked in second in seven seats, making it clear Kerala could now witness three-cornered contests. The apprehension that voting along class lines in the state will steer away the Ezhava community and their newly formed outfit the BDJS from the Left to the UDF appears not to have materialised. In terms of vote share, the CPM has bagged 26 per cent and the Congress 24 per cent. The numbers are not reflected in the seat share, which in the 2011 polls was a close call. The LDF had 68 and the UDF bagged 72 seats.

Soon after the results, Achuthanandan said, "This result shows the people of Kerala are not ready to compromise with corrupt leaders." Party colleague Vijayan said, "The remarkable win by the LDF is a befitting reply to the UDF. The Congress and the UDF have helped communal forces open their account."

With Christians and Muslims comprising 45 per cent of the electorate, the Kerala verdict will be closely scrutinised in the coming days. On the face of it, it appears there has been a consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the LDF. The Indian Union Muslim League, aligned with the UDF, bagged 18 of the 24 seats it contested. The deep factionalism within the Congress has cost the UDF dearly. So deep were the fault lines between KPCC chief Sudheeran, and Chandy that the Congress high command had to step in over ticket distribution. Adding to the factions in the state was the decade-long rivalry between Ramesh Chennithala and Chandy. Among the winners are Vijayan and Chandy, who won from Puthupally, his hometown. CPI candidate Muhammed Muhsin won from Pattambi--JNUSU leader Kanhaiya Kumar had campaigned for him. Prominent losers include UDF Cabinet ministers K Babu, KP Mohanan, PK Jayalakshmi and Shibu Baby John.

All eyes will now be on the state CPM unit, which will meet tomorrow to decide on the chief minister. The state unit has put its weight behind Vijayan.

PROMISES TO KEEP

1. 25 lakh jobs in five years, promote IT, tourism and electronics
2. Help in setting up of at least 1,500 start-ups
3. To promote liquor abstinence
4. House for every landless family within five years
5. Minimum guaranteed agricultural income for farmers
6. To set up land banks in panchayats
7. No price hike in Civil Supplies  and Consumer Fed shops for next five years
8. All eligible persons above 60 years of age to get pension, pensions to be increased to Rs 1,000 from 1 June
9. A special fund for non-resident Malayalis
10. Ensure availability of loans at four per cent interest to Kudumbasree units 4. To set up an Ayurveda university, ‘social hospitals’ in partnership with NGOs
11. Hi-tech education to all  studying in classes VIII-XII