Lok Sabha polls: What BJP and friends could lose to alliances in key states

If the 2014 voting pattern repeats, the SP-BSP combine could wrest 38 seats from the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, but the BJP's losses in Bihar would be negated by its tie-up with Nitish Kumar's JD(U)

A Business Standard analysis shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies could potentially lose in around 61 constituencies across key states where national and regional alliances have been forged and broken. The main states where new alliances have come up (those that did not exist in 2014) include Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Jharkhand. Some like Maharashtra have seen old alliances getting reinforced. In Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telegu Desam Party (TDP), which was a BJP ally in 2014, has decided to sever ties with the saffron party this time around.

Uttar Pradesh: SP-BSP-RLD could stage an upset

The biggest jolt to the BJP looks likely in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most electorally crucial state with 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. A look at electoral performances in 2014 shows that the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) could together give the BJP a run for its money in at least 37 seats that it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls riding on the so-called ‘Modi wave’. With Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (DAL) also joining the SP-BSP alliance, BJP could potentially be trounced in Baghpat also — here, BJP candidate Satya Pal Singh had defeated Ajit Singh in 2014. In effect, the BJP’s chances could run into serious competition in at least 38 constituencies that it had won in 2014 in Uttar Pradesh.

Though Modi continues to be a popular leader, his sway over masses has fallen prey to the law of diminishing returns. The BJP has chosen not to field its stalwart Murli Manohar Joshi from Kanpur and has instead chosen a local leader for this constituency which might potentially jeopardise its chances.

Apart from Kanpur, among the 38 seats that the BJP could lose to the alliance include the high-profile constituencies of Jhansi and Sultanpur. In 2014, Uma Bharti had contested from Jhansi and Varun Gandhi was the BJP’s candidate from Sultanpur. In 2019, Maneka Gandhi is being fielded from Sultanpur, and Varun Gandhi is being shifted to Pilibhit. In 2014, the BSP-SP candidates in Sultanpur had together polled almost 49,000 votes more than Varun Gandhi.

Meanwhile, the combined might of SP-BSP candidates in 2014 would have exceeded Uma Bharti’s tally by over 23,000 votes. What should perhaps be more worrying for the BJP is that much of the gains of this alliance is likely to accrue in the eastern part of the state, which the BJP had swept in 2014 on its way to winning 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

In 2014, the combined might of SP-BSP would have beaten BJP candidates in key east Uttar Pradesh constituencies like Allahabad (now named Prayagraj), Domariyaganj, Ballia, Jaunpur, Kaushambi and Bhadohi. In the western part of the state, the SP-BSP combine would have wrested Shahjahanpur, Moradabad, Bijnor, Rampur and Nagina. BJP’s candidates would have also been trounced in constituencies along the India-Nepal border, such as Kheri and Bahraich. Votes polled by SP-BSP candidates in all these constituencies would have not just ensured a victory but in some cases an absolute rout for the BJP.

In fact, in constituencies like Sambhal and Basti, which the BJP won comfortably in 2014, the winning margin of SP-BSP candidates would have been over 250,000 votes. The good news for the BJP is that Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (Sonelal) has again tied up with the party. Patel’s party won both seats it contested on with strong margins that couldn’t have been surpassed even by an SP-BSP combine.

Bihar: Alliance with JD(U) may limit BJP’s losses

While Uttar Pradesh looks bleak for the BJP after its monumental performance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 Assembly polls, the saffron party’s prospects in Bihar don’t look as tenebrous. The BJP has forged an alliance with the ruling Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) in addition to Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Nitish’s party wasn’t an alliance partner of the BJP in 2014, though Paswan’s party was its ally then also. This time, the BJP and JD(U) would be contesting on 17 seats each in Bihar, while the LJP will be contesting on six.

What could potentially hurt the BJP is that Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) has parted ways with the BJP. In 2014, when it was a BJP ally, Kushwaha’s party had in 2014 contested on three seats of Sitamarhi, Jahanabad and Karakat and won all three – two of them with margins of over 100,000 votes. In addition to losing Kushwaha’s firepower in these three constituencies, the BJP has also lost its star power in the form of actor-politician Shatrughan Sinha. Sinha, who had won Patna Sahib in 2014 as a BJP candidate has joined the Congress now. Shatrughan Sinha's move to the Congress as its candidate could make things interesting in Patna Sahib. The BJP has won the seat since 2009 with Sinha as the candidate. With the BJP fielding Ravi Shankar Prasad as the candidate from Patna Sahib, the seat could swing either way.

These losses for the BJP by deserting allies, however, could be more than made up by its alliance with a strong JD(U). If both parties had contested together in 2014, they would have defeated the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidates in at least four constituencies – Araria, Supaul, Madhepura and Bhagalpur. In addition, LJP’s Ram Chandra Paswan had won by a not-so-big margin of 6,000 votes in Samastipur, contesting against JD(U) and Congress candidates. The combined might of JD(U) and LJP in Samastipur would have ensured a victory by over 200,000 votes against the Congress candidate. With both parties not under-cutting each other’s votes this time around, the constituency could be potentially retained by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

With JD(U) on board, the BJP’s chances could be brightened in constituencies like Saran and Pataliputra as well. RJD supremo Lalu Prasad’s wife Rabri Devi and his daughter had fought from Saran and Pataliputra in 2014, respectively. They had lost to BJP candidates despite the JD(U) also being in contest in both these seats. This time around, in addition to the RJD and RLSP, the Congress has other smaller allies in Bihar like the Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM) and the recently formed Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Congress allies – HAM and VIP – will be contesting three seats each in the 2019 elections. BJP and its friends could win four more seats in Bihar while losing three of them.

Jharkhand: Multi-starrer alliance may hurt BJP

A more ominous sign for the BJP looms on the horizon in neighbouring Jharkhand. Though not as electorally crucial as Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to India’s Lower House, Jharkhand’s 14 seats could see the BJP losing ground to a newly shaped alliance between the Congress, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) and the RJD. In 2014, the JVM was fighting against the Congress and JMM in all constituencies.

The combined might of Marandi’s JVM and Congress could have defeated the BJP’s winning candidates in Godda and Lohardaga in 2014. Meanwhile, the combined might of JVM and JMM would have upset the BJP in Jamshedpur. What serves as a booster shot for the Congress is that both Madhu Koda and his wife Geeta joined the party last year. Geeta Koda contested from Singhbhum in 2014 and finished second behind the BJP in a fight that also involved Congress and JVM candidates. The combined might of Geeta Koda, Congress and the JVM would have been sufficient to defeat the BJP’s winning candidate by almost 60,000 votes.

Andhra Pradesh: Miffed Chandrababu may mean trouble for BJP

A more intriguing picture could unfold in southern states. In Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP has been antagonised by the BJP. This time, Naidu’s party will be going it alone after being a BJP ally in 2014. Most of Andhra Pradesh’s 25 Lok Sabha constituencies had seen a fight between TDP and Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) last time. The TDP had won 15 of these 25 seats, while Jagan’s party had managed to win eight of them. With TDP out of the BJP fold, the latter could face an uphill task in almost all these seats, where the TDP looks formidable.

Moreover, if the Congress decides not to field candidates against the TDP in certain seats and assuming that the Congress votes are cast for the TDP, the tally could go up further. In 2014, the combined strength of Congress and TDP would have ensured wins for TDP candidates in Nellore and Kakinada against YSRCP candidates. In seats like Kakinada, which the TDP won by a narrow margin, the absence of a Congress candidate could potentially boost its tally, helping it win more comfortably against YSRCP. The BJP will be hoping that its losses from TDP’s exit are compensated for by Jagan’s gravitation to its fold after the elections. Jagan’s YSRCP has been giving mixed signals about its affinity to the BJP. In 2017, it had voted in support of NDA’s Presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind. But last year, Jagan’s party stood with the TDP to move a no-confidence motion against the BJP-led government in Parliament.

Karnataka: New alliances may give new shapes to old players

While alliances may have degenerated in Andhra Pradesh, new ones are being shaped in neighbouring Karnataka. The Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) have decided to contest on 20 and eight seats, respectively. In 2014, the two parties had fielded candidates against each other in several constituencies. A look at the results shows that the combined might of the Congress and JD(S) would have defeated BJP’s winning candidates in Davanagare and Mysore.

In two other constituencies – Raichur and Chikkodi – the Congress candidates barely scraped through, with margins of almost 3,000 votes while contesting against both BJP and JD(S) candidates. In Chikballapur, the Congress candidate won by a margin of almost 10,000 votes against JD(S) and BJP candidates. The combined might of JD(S) and Congress in Chikballapur would have ensured a winning margin of over 350,000 votes against the BJP candidate.

A bright spot for the BJP in Karnataka is that three rebel Congress leaders have joined the party and have been given tickets to contest. One of them, A Manju has been fielded from Hassan. As a Congress candidate, Manju was the runner-up in Hassan after polling almost 410,000 votes in 2014. The combined might of Manju and the BJP’s 100,000-odd votes would have been enough to defeat the winning JD(S) candidate in the constituency. While calculations would show that rebel Congress candidate Manju's transfer of votes to BJP would have helped it win in Hassan. But H D Deve Gowda, who has won this seat since 2009, has fielded his grandson from Hassan this time around. So, despite Manju's switch, Hassan may well be retained by the Deve Gowda clan.

Tamil Nadu: Complex arithmetic may give confusing signals

Perhaps a more complex and intriguing scenario is evolving in Tamil Nadu, which is known to oscillate between the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) every election, with a fair sprinkling of extreme electoral results for the incumbents. In 2014, fighting under the leadership of late J Jayalalithaa, AIADMK had won 37 of the 39 seats. The BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) had won a seat each in the state.

The AIADMK had fought the election alone and Jayalalithaa’s refusal to join the BJP’s alliance even after the astounding win had disappointed many AIADMK MPs who were hoping for ministerial berths. After Jayalalithaa’s death, the AIADMK has been in tatters, with infighting among various factions sullying its image among Tamil voters. Controversies and politics surrounding Jayalalithaa’s death haven’t translated into sympathy akin to what was generated by DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi’s demise. For the first time ever, the AIADMK is contesting its lowest ever seats in a Lok Sabha election. The party is contesting on just 20 seats, with its other allies, the PMK and BJP contesting on nine and five seats, respectively.

The DMK, meanwhile, has emerged stronger than ever under the leadership of M K Stalin. The death of Karunanidhi, whose name is invoked by Stalin often at public meetings, would generate massive sympathy for the party among Tamil voters. A further dent to the AIADMK and BJP is the incessant assault of newer political entrants like actor Kamal Hassan, who hasn’t let go of an opportunity to target the AIADMK in the state and the BJP at the Centre. The DMK has also managed to stitch together a more secular alliance with Dalit parties like Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and other traditional allies like the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). If the DMK-led alliance puts up a strong show in Tamil Nadu, the BJP could end up with more losing friends than it had hoped.