Tea and perfume in Assam elections

After years of decline in production and subdued realisations, the outlook for tea industry began to look up from the second half of last year. In April-October of 2015, earnings from tea export for Indian companies surged by more than 4% against the fall of 15% in the year ago period.

The fluctuating fortunes of the tea industry has had its impact on elections as the tea garden community has a sizeable presence in at least one-third of all assembly constituencies in the state.

Assam, which accounts for half of the country’s tea production, had three consecutive years of bumper production in 2009, 2010 and 2011. The feel good thus created perhaps helped the then incumbent, the Congress, to retain power in the 2011 assembly elections for the record third term. Tarun Gogoi-led Congress did very well in upper Assam, which is where most of tea gardens are located.

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The industry had a rough ride in subsequent years as monsoon, among others, played spoilsport. The production fell 5% in 2014 and 6% in 2015. And we all know that the Congress faced serious drubbing in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Assam owing to its poor performance in areas dominated by tea garden community.

Assembly-segment wise analysis of 2014 Lok Sabha elections shows that the Congress could manage lead in just 23 assembly segments, whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured lead in as many as 69 segments. It was quite a change from 2011 assembly elections when the Congress had won 78 seats and the BJP just five. The swing in fortune is attributed to alienation of tea garden community from the Congress.

The tea garden community members account for nearly 30% votes in more than 35 of the total of 126 assembly constituencies in the state. The community consists of members who are descendants of plantation workers brought in by the British tea garden owners in the 19th century from Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. Will the recent improvement in the fortunes of the tea industry favour the incumbent, the Congress, or the challenger, the BJP? The outcome of Assam elections will depend a great deal on this. The state goes for polls beginning today.

Another important variable in Assam elections is going to be the performance of Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Besides politics, Ajmal has a thriving perfume business. And he is believed to have considerable hold over 34% strong Muslim voter base in the state. The AIUDF won 18 seats in 2011 and led in 24 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

If he consolidates his hold over the minority community further and improves his performance compared to the last assembly elections, he is likely to emerge as the kingmaker in the state. Ajmal’s rise will mean erosion in seats and vote share of the Congress as both the parties claim to receive sizeable chunk of Muslim votes.