Gilts seen firm

Government bond prices are likely to rise tomorrow, as deepening worries over the Euro zone debt crisis might boost the appetite for gilts.

On Friday, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US treasury note shed five basis points to touch 1.5 per cent, indicating risk aversion among investors.

Crude oil futures contract for August delivery also fell, to $91.44 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.22 from the previous close due to low risk appetite.

Concerns over Spain’s borrowing cost heightened after its 10-year sovereign bond yield rose to 7.22 per cent on Friday, surging well past the crucial seven per cent mark. Global risk-aversion might pull down overnight-indexed swap rates. The two-day call rate is likely to open near the central bank’s repo rate of eight per cent tomorrow on comfortable availability of funds.

Government bonds
Prices are seen up tomorrow due to weak risk appetite globally. Global economic uncertainty benefits domestic bonds, as it raises the chances of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. Hope of a monetary easing at its policy review on July 31 might send prices around 30p higher.

The rise in prices may be limited by persistent profit sales, particularly by state-owned banks. After their recent buying spree, public sector banks, which usually follow a conservative trading strategy, may be on the selling side on Monday.

Some of the successful bidders at Friday’s auction may also turn sellers. Yields on the benchmark 8.15 per cent 2022 gilt, which ended at 8.07 per cent on Friday, is seen in a 8.02-8.08 per cent range.