Rupee weakens to over three-month low

RBI's FX reserves at all-time high of $ 343.20 bn

The rupee weakened to an over three-month low against the dollar on Friday, as foreign funds pulled out from domestic debt after the trade deficit widened and the government said foreign investors would have to pay a retrospective tax.

The rupee ended at 63.56 to the dollar, compared with Thursday's close of 63.32. It opened at 63.24 and during intra-day trade, touched a low of 63.65. It had ended at 63.57 on January 6.

"Investors were worried about the sudden lack of foreign fund inflows and fear large outflows if tax-related concerns are not resolved. Reports emerged that money is flowing out of the country after Japan's Daiichi Sankyo is reported to be selling their shares worth up to $3.6 billion in Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. This further hurt sentiment," said Suresh Nair, director, Admisi Forex.

Since the start of 2015, the rupee has weakened by 0.8 per cent. It had ended at 63.04 on December 31. It is expected to weaken further. "For next week, we are looking for a range of 63.25 to 63.80. The next resistance is seen at 63.80 and if that is broken, the rupee can even weaken to 64 a dollar. There will be month-end dollar demand from importers. The rupee is seen weakening even six months down the line. There might be outflows from domestic markets and there would be debt payments, too," said Sandeep Gonsalves, forex consultant and dealer, Mecklai & Mecklai.

According to currency dealers, the Reserve Bank of India  had intervened in the currency market on Friday, through state-run banks in early trades. However, dollar demand was so large that they did not continue.

Meanwhile, data from RBI released on Friday shows that for the week ending April 17, 2015 the central bank's foreign exchange reserves stood at an all-time high of $ 343.20 billion. The reserves rose by $ 2.79 billion during the week.

Foreign currency assets, a key component, rose by $2.73 billion to $318.86 billion. During the week gold reserves remained unchanged at $19.04 billion.

For the week under review, the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) rose by $45.6 million to $4.00 billion, while India's reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was up $14.8 million to $1.30 billion.