China may fall short on 2021 solar power target, hit by raw material costs

China's installed solar capacity could miss expectations to reach just 45 gigawatts (GW) to 55 GW this year, the solar manufacturing association said on Wednesday, as soaring prices of raw material slowed projects.

The figure compares with generation capacity of 55 GW to 65 GW that had been forecast to be added this year, as China has grown solar power capacity nearly sixfold since 2015, to stand at 253.43 GW by 2020.

But a robust rebound in installation in coming years could see the launch of up to 75 GW of new capacity in 2022, Wang Bohua, vice-chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), told a conference.

This could also push annual capacity additions to between 90 GW and 110 GW by 2025, he added.

Prices of silicon materials and silicon wafer surged 165% and 63%, respectively, in the period from January to September, Wang said, although prices have cooled in recent weeks.

President Xi Jinping has pledged to boost total installed solar and wind capacity to 1,200 GW by 2030 in the fight on climate change, implying his country would need to add 665 GW of solar and wind capacity within this decade.

Over the first 10 months this year, however, just 29.31 GW of new solar power generation capacity was launched, official data showed, as a supply constraint on photovoltaic raw materials and runaway product prices hit new projects.

China's solar module exports reached 82.2 GW in the first 10 months of 2021, up 32% on the year, CPIA data showed, destined mostly for Australia, Europe and Japan, while sales to emerging markets such as Brazil, India and Vietnam also picked up.

Wang also warned that tightening global trade conditions could affect development of the industry.

Last week, Washington banned imports from the far western region of Xinjiang over concerns about forced labour. Xinjiang supplies about 45% of the world's solar panel-grade polysilicon.

Some Chinese solar makers, such as Longi Green Tech , have set up manufacturing plants overseas to avoid the tension over politics and trade.

(Reporting by Muyu Xu and David Stanway; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)