China's exports rise 48.9% in Feb, imports slide 20%

A recovering US has helped underpin China's economy as it seeks to cut excess capacity

China's exports surged in February, exceeding all estimates as the economy benefited from US growth and worked through data distortions linked to the Chinese New Year holiday and a crackdown on fake invoicing.

Exports gained more than 48 per cent from a year earlier, the customs administration said in Beijing on Sunday. That compared with the median estimate for a 14 per cent jump in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Imports slid more than 20 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of $60.6 billion.

A recovering US has helped underpin China's economy as it seeks to cut down excess capacity and transition to a reliance on domestic demand rather than infrastructure investment. Today's skewed numbers also reflect other factors, including the timing of the lunar new year holiday, plunging commodity prices and an effort to clamp down on capital outflows via faked trade receipts.

"The US is the single most important propeller, and Chinese exports basically follow the US economy," said Larry Hu, head of China Economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd in Hong Kong. Hu estimates that a 3 per cent expansion in the American economy will add an additional 0.5 to 1 percentage point to China's growth by boosting the exports by 8 to 9 per cent.

Exports to the US in the first two months jumped 21 per cent in yuan terms. Shipments to Association of Southeast Asian Nations also increased in January and February, rising 38 per cent.

On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang announced a 2015 growth target of 7 per cent, the lowest set in more than 15 years. In his work report delivered to China's legislature, Li also flagged increasing headwinds for the world's second-largest economy such as overcapacity and insufficient innovation.

"Chinese exports are humming along, which is a relief as the domestic investment momentum is struggling," said Yao Wei, a Paris-based China economist at Societe Generale SA.

The government set the expansion goal for total trade at 6 per cent in its work report, down from last year's 7.5 per cent. Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said Saturday that he is "confident" to accomplish the target.

The drop in imports was sharper than the median estimate of a 10 per cent decline, signaling continued weakness in internal demand as well as the fall in commodity prices. Stronger exports may also help China to get rid of a investment-driven growth model.

"The Chinese government will try its best to achieve the growth goal of about 7 per cent," Hu said. "If exports are good, they can do less in other aspects such as infrastructure investment."

The trade surplus today compared with a $6 billion median estimate. The larger balance will add uncertainty to the Chinese currency.

"An extraordinary growth of exports could be due to the base effect - the February 2014 figures were extremely low as Chinese authorities cracked down on the round-tripping trade flows," Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Hong Kong wrote in a note.