The analysis by defence consultancy IHS Jane's, due to be published in full later this week, puts the number of rebel forces at around 100,000, the Telegraph reported.
But these fighters have split into as many as 1,000 bands since violence flared two years ago, the study concluded.
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"The insurgency is now dominated by groups which have at least an Islamist viewpoint on the conflict," Charles Lister, author of the analysis, told the British newspaper.
"The idea that it is mostly secular groups leading the opposition is just not borne out.
"If the West looks as though it is not interested in removing Assad, moderate Islamists are also likely to be pushed further towards extremists," he warned.
The study is based on interviews with militants and on intelligence estimates.
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