Oil down as firmer $, bearish outlook offset West Asia tensions

Oil slipped on Monday as a rallying dollar weighed on the commodities complex amid a bearish price outlook by influential Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs and risks of growing oversupply.

Crude oil prices erased early gains of more than $1 a barrel on worries of turmoil in West Asia after a major advance by Islamic State militants in Iraq and renewed air strikes by a Saudi-led coalition against Houthi militia in Yemen.

But the market gave back those gains as trading progressed in New York, after the dollar rose 0.8 per cent against a basket of major currencies, its most in three weeks.

The 19-commodity Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index, led by crude oil, was down nearly a quarter per cent as the stronger dollar made raw materials denominated in the currency less affordable to holders of the euro and other denomination.

US crude futures CLc1 were down 18 cents to $59.51 a barrel by 11:18 am EDT (1518 GMT), after rallying to $60.88 earlier.

Brent crude LCOc1, the more widely used benchmark, was 66 cents lower at $66.15, retreating from a session peak of $67.88.

“The fact that the dollar is reasserting its strength on oil despite the major geopolitical tensions in the Middle East shows that not everyone is convinced the oil rally we’ve had of late should continue,” said Tariq Zahir, an oil bear at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow in New York.

Speculators cut their bets on rising Brent crude prices for the first time in two months, data showed on Monday.

Goldman said in a note circulated to its clients on Saturday, and reported by Reuters on Monday, that it expected Brent to trade at $55 a barrel by 2020, versus current levels above $65.

Analysts said oil markets remained oversupplied, and that the glut could worsen if US production picked up while Opec output remained strong.

Kuwait’s Opec Governor Nawal al-Fuzaia said oversupply in global oil was due to slow demand and a rise in shale oil output, not production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi told Reuters that Opec was unlikely to cut output at its June meeting, and that Iran hoped its exports would return to pre-sanctions levels of 2.5 million barrels per day within three months of a deal to lift an oil embargo.

OIL TURMOIL

• Goldman Sachs has lowered their Brent crude price assumption from 2016 to 2019 from $70 a barrel to $62-$65 a barrel and for 2020 from $70 a barrel to $55 a barrel
   
• Signs that Opec was unlikely to cut output in its key meeting next month put further strain on the supply outlook
  

 

Kuwait Opec Governor Nawal al-Fuzaia says oversupply in the global oil market is due to slow demand and a rise in production from shale oil, but not from Opec
 

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi says Opec is unlikely to cut output in June, and that Iran hoped its crude exports would return to pre-sanctions levels of 2.5 mn barrels per day within 3 months once a deal to lift an oil embargo is finalised