Political unrest pushes Burundi closer to economic collapse

In a circular ward of the Prince Regent Charles Hospital, a facility that speaks of better days in this central African country, Armel Manirambona lay on a bed under a white blanket that covered a bullet wound in his abdomen and damage to his colon and liver.

"We were running in the street, and then I was shot," said Manirambona, 27, an information technology worker with a university degree who lives in the Buterere neighborhood in Bujumbura, the capital. "I don't remember anything."

Manirambona is one of scores of people who have been wounded in recent days while demonstrating against President Pierre Nkurunziza, whose pursuit of a third term in office has thrown the country into crisis. The protests have been met harshly by security forces, and at least 20 people have been killed, including two on Thursday, the Red Cross reported.

Nkurunziza's bid, announced on April 25, is raising questions because the Constitution says a president's five-year mandate may be renewed only once. His contention, rejected by opponents, is that his first term should not count toward the limit because he was initially elected in 2005 by Parliament, not voters.

After almost a month of daily protests and the failure of a coup attempt on May 14, the crisis has begun to take a severe toll on the economy and daily life of the country, and seems only to be getting worse.

Burundi, one of the world's poorest countries, depends on foreign aid for more than half of its national budget. On Thursday, Belgium, the country's biggest donor and former colonial ruler, warned Nkurunziza that it would cut off all aid if he went ahead with plans to run in the election, scheduled for June.

"A third presidential term would stain at the highest level the legitimacy of the Burundi executive, and would make the completion of the bilateral program impossible," the Belgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The country's currency, the Burundian franc, has been falling against the dollar, prompting many Burundians to rush to exchange francs for hard currency before it weakens further. Analysts say the country's tax collection system has ceased to function, imperiling the livelihoods of tens of thousands of government employees in the capital and other cities.

"The government will not be able to pay salaries," said Gilbert Niyongabo, a professor of economics at the University of Burundi.

Rural areas will be slower to feel the effects of the crisis, Professor Niyongabo said, but come harvest season, "there will be no customers for the agricultural products."

"We expect an economic collapse in a month," he said.