UK economy grows faster than expected in Q3, no sign of Brexit hit

Current account deficit widened to 25.494 bn pounds from a downwardly revised 22.079 bn pounds in Q2

UK economy grows faster than expected in Q3, no sign of Brexit hit
Several 20 pound currency notes
Reuters
Last Updated : Dec 23 2016 | 4:35 PM IST

Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter, showing no sign of any slowdown from June's Brexit vote, but the country's current account deficit rose back towards record levels.

The economy expanded 0.6% in the three months to September, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, revised up from an earlier reading of 0.5% that economists had expected to remain unchanged.

But growth was revised down by 0.1 percentage points in the first and second quarters of the year to 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.

While the figures confirmed that Britain's economy performed more robustly than economists expected after the vote to leave the European Union, there was no sign that sterling's sharp fall had boosted exports.

The figures showed a markedly worse picture for trade and growth was more reliant on domestic demand than previously thought.

"Robust consumer demand continued to help the UK economy grow steadily in the third quarter of 2016," ONS statistician Darren Morgan said.

Net trade acted as a drag of 1.2 percentage points on third quarter growth, the biggest drag since early 2012 and compared with an initial estimate that trade had offered a 0.7 percentage point boost to the growth rate.

This reflected corrections the ONS recently made to trade data due to a miscalculation in the trade of gold.

Britain's current account deficit widened to 25.494 billion pounds from a downwardly revised 22.079 billion pounds in the second quarter.

While lower than the 27.45 billion pounds expected by economists, it caused the deficit to rise to 5.2% of gross domestic product from 4.6% —approaching a record 6.0% seen in late 2013.

In the run-up to June's referendum, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Britain relied on the "kindness of strangers" to meet its financing needs - something that could fade if Britain became a less attractive investment destination.

Sterling tumbled after the Brexit vote, which most economists think should ultimately reduce Britain's current account deficit by curbing imports, and boosting exports and the sterling returns from Britain's overseas investments.

But some economists warn Britain could still be vulnerable if its overseas funders become nervous about their investments - particularly if it looks like Britain will end up with a bad deal in its divorce from the European Union.

Rising inflation caused by the pound's post-referendum plunge looks set to squeeze household spending and economists said they still expected business investment to slow.

Compensation of employees rose at its fastest annual rate since the second quarter of 2013, up 4.5% on the year but rising inflation meant that in real terms, household income growth on the year slowed to 0.3%- its weakest rate in two years.

Households ate into their savings, with the savings ratio dropping to its lowest since the third quarter of 2008.

Growth in business investment slowed, revised down to 0.4% on a quarterly basis from 0.9%.

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: Dec 23 2016 | 4:10 PM IST

Next Story