Analysts' corner

NTPC
Reco price: Rs 174
Target price: Rs 180
After a gross generation decline of 2.1 per cent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1, NTPC's Q2 FY12 generation fell 2.6 per cent yoy. Analysts expect this trend to continue in Q3 FY12, given the coal shortage crisis. Coal plant load factor was down to 78.38 per cent (versus Q2FY11's 82.91 per cent). Coal supply at 31.9 million tonnes was flat yoy, and analysts expect this to deteriorate in Q3FY12. Recurring net profit of Rs 1,900 crore was eight per cent below Citigroup estimate of Rs 2,080 crore, and was down eight per cent yoy. Debtor days have increased from 33 at Q2FY11 end to 66 at Q2FY12 end. Neutral.

— Citigroup