Coffee Board's forecast for 2013-14 surprises planters

Board has projected an all-time high crop of 347,000 tonnes in current year

At 3,47,000 tonnes, the Coffee Board's post-blossom crop forecast for 2013-14 has come as a surprise for planters and exporters in Karnataka. The board has projected a nine per cent rise in production, compared with the final estimate of 3,18,200 tonnes for 2012-13. Karnataka accounts for 70 per cent of India’s coffee output.

The board has pegged robusta production at 2,36,000 tonnes and arabica production at 1,11,000 tonnes---7.5 per cent and 12.9 per cent higher than the final estimates for 2012-13, respectively. In 2012-13, 98,600 tonnes of arabica and 2,19,600 tonnes of robusta were harvested.

According to the Karnataka Planters’ Association (KPA), the board's estimates were too high, considering the growing regions were in the grip of a prolonged drought and high temperatures during the pre-blossom period of February-April. KPA has pegged production at 2,90,000 tonnes.

"There are three main factors affecting production this year. We have seen prolonged dryness, owing to very high temperatures in March and April and the occurrence of white stem borer in arabica plantations. Third, this is an 'off-year' for robusta. We cannot have two consecutive years of high production. As a result of the drought, bean development was low this year in major growing regions in the Chikmagalur, Hassan and Kodagu districts," said Nishant R Gurjer, chairman, KPA.

In fact, robusta production would be 25 per cent lower this year, especially in Karnataka, he added.

Exporters, however, neither agree with the board, nor with planters. "If the Coffee Board's estimates come true, it will be an all-time high production in India. But it is unlikely to happen, considering various factors. Robusta has seen good rains in April and this year's crop would certainly be better than last year's. I think a little over 3,30,000 tonnes looks reasonable," said Ramesh Rajah, president, Coffee Exporters' Association of India.

Gurjer said the incessant rains in most growing regions in the last three weeks would have an adverse impact on production. Many planters have already reported fruit dropping and rotting. “There are stray incidents of 'kole roga’ (a rotting disease) in many areas due to heavy rains,” he said. This year, production could be 2,90,000-3,00,000 tonnes, he added.

The United States Department of Agriculture has projected India’s coffee production at 3,12,000 tonnes.

A Coffee Board official said sampling had been carried out in April-June and the post-blossom estimates were in accordance with the sampling. Realistic production figures would only be released when post-monsoon estimates were prepared in October, he said, adding, “We will take into account all factors, including the impact of heavy rains, when we prepare the post-monsoon estimates.”