Coffee prices likely to remain steady on global cues

In international markets, prices may remain range-bound with a negative bias, mainly on weak technicals amid uncertainty over the frost condition in Brazil. Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of arabica coffee in the world.

Domestic market
Coffee prices are seen steady-to-weak in the week ahead on thin demand and weakness in overseas markets, said P J Suresh Babu, proprietor, chaitanya coffee.

Reports of higher coffee output estimate for 2008-09 (Oct-Sep) may also weigh on prices, traders said. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India's coffee production in 2008-09 at 285,000 tonnes, up 9 per cent against the previous year's estimate, because of a rise in the area under coffee cultivation, especially in non-traditional regions of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.

Babu also said India is currently quoting a higher price than other major coffee producing countries, which may slightly slow down exports.

"Currently, prices of Indian arabica and robusta coffee are higher by Rs 4-5 and Rs 2-3 a kg respectively, than other exporting countries," he said.

Today, raw arabica parchment was quoted at Rs 5,100-5,150 per 50 kg, down Rs 50-100 from previous week, while raw robusta parchment was at Rs 4,700 per 50 kg, down slightly.

Prices of raw arabica cherry were around Rs 2,700 per 50 kg, down almost Rs 50 from last week, while that of raw robusta cherry were almost steady at Rs 2,350-2,400 per 50 kg.

Global trend
Overseas coffee prices are likely to remain range-bound with a negative bias for the next few sessions, mainly on weak technicals, said Chowda Reddy, analyst, Karvy Comtrade.

"We may witness fund selling in the week ahead," he said. Also, uncertainty over weather conditions in Brazil and higher crop estimate by USDA may keep prices in a range with a negative bias, a Mumbai-based analyst said.

In the week ahead, July arabica contract on Intercontinental Exchange US Futures is likely to get immediate support at $1.30 per pound, while $1.40 is a good resistancelevel, Reddy said.

July coffee contract on London International Financial Futures Exchange may get support at $2,170 a tonne and face resistance at $2,290, he said.

"If July coffee contract on LIFFE breaches the immediate support level, then prices are likely to decline further to $2,100 per 1 tn," he added.

On Wednesday, ICE July arabica contract closed at $1.3275 a pound, up 25 points from Tuesday, on short covering, while July coffee contract on LIFFE ended at $2,214 a tonne, down $14, on long liquidation.