Cotton buying begins, output may fall short of estimate

Cotton output may fall short of the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) estimate due to adverse climate in Punjab, the fifth-largest producing state, and crop disease in Maharashtra, the largest grower in the country.

The CAB’s first advanced estimate in August had forecast total output at 30.5 million bales (a bale has 170 kg), a rise of 5 per cent from the previous year’s output of 29 million bales.

According to Dubhash Jhakhar, a Punjab-based cotton farmer, hot weather hit the crop in the state, with production estimated to decline 10-15 per cent. He said shortage of water also hit germination, even though the area sown rose about 2 per cent. According to CAB, the sowing area jumped to 536,000 hectares (ha) in 2009-10, as against 527,000 ha last year.

AB Joshi, textile commissioner, confirmed that crop damage had been reported in Jalna district of Maharashtra, without divulging details. But a decline in some areas could be compensated by a bumper output in other centres. Hence, there would be no change in crop estimates until we got details about the damage, Joshi added.

Last year too, CAB kept the estimate at 32.5 million bales till the last moment; it actually slumped to 29 million bales on final compilation of data. The cotton year in India runs from October to September.

Last year, spurious Bt seeds, mainly from Gujarat, hit output in Punjab. This was controlled this year. Therefore, the output, despite damage, would be similar to last year, not more, said D K Nair, secretary-general, the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (Citi). The shortfall, if any, would be marginal, Nair added.

According to an assessment of crop damage due to recent floods in Karnataka conducted by the state agriculture department, close to 51 per cent of the 291,000 ha under cotton was partly damaged in the north during this year’s kharif season. Around 18,730 ha was affected in Belgaum district, followed by Davanagere (16,584 ha) and Dharwad (16,565 ha). Gulbarga and Raichur districts lost 15,228 ha and 13,456 ha, respectively. Karnataka also grows cotton in the rabi season.

Arrivals have started in full swing at mandis. Procurement agencies, including Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and private traders, are fully accepting the quantities. Private procurers are paying a marginal premium over the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2,800 a quintal. In Punjab, 13,74,000 quintals (276,000 bales) were procured from different mandis by private traders and CCI, as on October 26, as compared to 13, 80,000 quintals (274,000 bales) during the corresponding period last year.