Cotton output may fall to five-year low

Likely to decline by over 14% due to a decline in yield of the standing crop in north India

Cotton production is likely to decline by over 14 per cent to a five-year low in 2015-16 due to a decline in yield of the standing crop in north India.

The trade estimates cotton output at around 33 million bales (170 kg each) for the October 2015-September 2016 crop year against 38 million bales in the previous year. Anticipating lower output, the Cotton Advisory Board, in its first estimate in November, forecast output at 36.5 million bales. The agriculture ministry had in September forecast cotton output at 33.51 million bales.

The decline assumes significance in states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra where suicides by farmers were a matter of concern.

"We estimate lower cotton output this year. The quantity of output will be ascertained in the next Cotton Advisory Board meeting on Tuesday," Textiles Commissioner Kavita Gupta told Business Standard.

Trade sources have sent their assessments to the textiles commissioner's office. A majority of them have forecast output at 33.5-36 million bales and the Cotton Association of India's estimate was 34.5 million bales.

"In our view, cotton output will not surpass 32.5 million bales this year. Unlike last season, when one or two spells of rainfall supported flowering, development and maturing of pods, the lack of winter showers has hit cotton yield," said M B Lal, past chairman of the Cotton Corporation of India and managing director of Shail Exports, a city-based cotton exporter.

Cotton sowing started weak this year on low soil moisture following deficient monsoon rainfall. According to Gupta, the overall acreage has declined to 11.76 million hectares from 13.08 million hectares a year ago.

The 15 per cent decline in average acreage in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Gujarat and Maharashtra was likely to hit farmers.

In Karnataka alone, the cotton output was estimated at 1.7-1.8 million bales, down from 3.0 million bales last year. Whiteflies infestation in Punjab and Haryana was set to reduce output of this region to 4.05 million bales from 5.2 million bales in the previous year.

The output in Gujarat is also likely to slump to 9-9.5 million bales this year from 12.2 million bales a year ago.

"The government needs to take strict action against trade malpractices. In Punjab and Haryana, the yield was impacted because of spurious seeds supplied to farmers. Also, ginners are mixing sub-standard cotton in Gujarat. These practices need to be curbed immediately," said Arun Sakseria, managing director, DD Cotton, a cotton exporter.