Crop output may fall this year on late sowing

After a record performance last year, production of important crops such as pulses, cotton and maize are set to decline this year owing to a significant gap in their sowing in the ongoing kharif season. Sowing in these crops has been lagging over last year’s corresponding acreage, due to early drought-like conditions in certain states.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, while the northwestern region received 27 per cent more rainfall between June 1 and July 31, the south peninsula remained 20 per cent short of normal. The rainfall deficiency in the central region was 9 per cent and the north-eastern region 3 per cent.

However, sowing of rice, the main kharif crop, is well above last year’s and its production could be heading towards another record.

“Sowing in pulses has been lagging by nearly one and a half million hectares. The gap in acreage will narrow down but might still remain lower by a million hectares. This will mainly affect production of urad and moong as these cannot be sown in August.

The acreage gap could cause kharif pulses output to drop by 500,000-600,000 tonnes,” N B Singh, agriculture commissioner in the union agriculture ministry told Business Standard. Pulses output in last kharif season stood at 6.45 million tonnes.

Kharif sowing has also been lagging for crops such as oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton owing to early season drought-like circumstances in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

The gap in cotton sowing will remain at over one million hectares as the sowing period for the crop has ended. Though output will be impacted, cotton will be adequately available for domestic consumption. “If we cut down exports, meeting domestic availability will not be a problem,” Singh said. Maize sowing has also been lagging by 700,000 hectares.

While prices of pulses, cotton and maize has seen a rising trend on apprehension of an output drop, there is good news on the rice front — its sowing has been higher by about 1.6 million hectares over last year’s corresponding sowing.

“It could be another record output for rice, provided rains remain benevolent for the next couple of months. This will ensure the overall grain output does not decline,” he said. Rice production stood at 96.43 million tonnes last year, of which about 85 per cent came from the kharif crop.

There has been diversion of sugarcane area to paddy in Uttar Pradesh (200,000-300,000 hectares), Punjab (50,000 hectares) and Haryana (40,000 hectares). Farmers have wisely shifted to paddy for remunerative prices. However, no shortage in sugar is anticipated as the country had bumper production in the last two years.