Edelweiss analyst Abneesh Roy said in a research note today, "The market price for mentha oil is Rs 1,200-1,250 a kg and the cost for Emami was Rs 1,450 due to contracts signed earlier. If current prices persist, the gross margin will improve 300 basis points, year-on-year."
India has a near-monopoly in production of mentha and mentha oil. In 2012-13, it produced 50,000 tonnes, against 38,000 tonnes in 2011-12. The current season's sowing is nearly complete and the crop is expected early next month.
A mentha oil exporter based at Barabanki, UP, where 80 per cent of all mentha is grown, said: "This year, sowing is higher by 15-20 per cent and oil production is expected at 58,000 to 60,000 tonnes." The oil price went as high as Rs 2,700 a kg in July 2011 but has been falling since. It is now trading around Rs 975 a kg in Barabanki and Rs 1,005 a kg in Sambhal. "Prices are lower because of higher supply and lower domestic/ export demand," said Bhansali.
Domestic demand is down mostly because of a ban on gutkha, a major consumer. In the export market, a couple of German companies and a Japanese company have introduced synthetic mentha oil. This sells at a 30 per cent discount to the Indian original oil in the international market. Synthetic oil makers are expected to cut prices further, said a UP-based exporter.
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