Erratic climate to hit rabi output

Cyclone Nilam in Andhra, followed by unseasonal rainfall to hit pulses, potato and turmeric crop

Erratic climatic behaviour and damage caused by Cyclone Nilam in Andhra Pradesh during the sowing season, followed by a week-long spell of unseasonal rainfall during harvesting, are set to substantially hit the rabi crop output.

Cyclone Nilam hit the coastal belt of Andhra Pradesh in October last year, damaging spices and other cash crops in an estimated area of 500,000 hectares. Since re-sowing was also not possible due to time overrun, overall output of spices is set to be lower this year.

No official agency has assessed the crop loss in the state but Angel Broking, a city-based commodity broking firm, estimates overall loss in turmeric and chilli output at 50 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

"Spices were quoted lower during the sowing season due to bumper output in the previous year. Consequently, farmers brought less area under spices this year, With the change in climatic condition, there's a drastic decline in estimated output," said Vedika Narvekar, senior research analyst at Angel Broking.

The cyclone also affected the tobacco crop. The Tobacco Board estimates a decline in output in Andhra Pradesh to around 170 million kg this year, compared to 175 million kg last year.

Potato, another important rabi season crop, was feared to be impacted because of a long spell of unseasonal rain in early February, the harvesting season. The rainfall continued for four days in major producing centres. However, "barring a couple of centres, including Meerut in Uttar Pradesh, the potato crop loss was negligible. Unlike the initial assessment, the impact of rotting would also be lower," said Bir Pal Singh, director, Central Potato Research Organisation.

"There has been an insignificant impact of unseasonal rainfall in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Since, the potato crop was fully matured, the output had hardly any impact. The rainfall just delayed harvesting by about a week," said R P Gupta, director, National Horticulture Research & Development Foundation.

The sudden price spurt because of erratic climatic conditions has started cooling. With the increasing pace of arrivals on intensified harvesting, however, the initial euphoria on the price rise is also cooling. The prices of agri commodities have declined around five per cent in the past two weeks, after doubling since the beginning of sowing three months ago. The prices of these commodities are set to remain lower in the near term, only to recover in the long run.