Favourable climate to boost pulses output by 25-30%

India’s pulses output is likely to rise 25-30 per cent during the 2010-11 season due to favourable climate. The ongoing kharif season has already struck a positive note, with output forecast to rise 35 per cent. The late monsoon rainfall has also left adequate moisture for rabi sowing, boosting prospects for the winter crop. So, industry watchers estimate a bumper output this year.

Over a dozen stakeholders — traders, importers, growers, etc, surveyed by Business Standard forecast that output would rise to 18-19 million tonnes this year as against 14.57 mt the previous year.

On achieving this figure, the import requirement would decline from a consistent three mt during the previous years to 1.5-2 mt this year, said Pulses Importers’ Association President K C Bharatiya.

In the kharif season, scattered monsoon rainfall through the 90-120 days crop cycle helped the grain remain healthy. As a consequence, traders said, output this kharif season would remain between 5.85 mt and 6.15 mt, a substantial rise from 4.3 mt in the same season last year.

Rabi is key
About 30 per cent of India’s pulses’ output is during the kharif season — all the tur, 65 per cent urad and 90 per cent moong.

While agreeing with the agriculture ministry’s estimate of area under pulses at 11.593 million ha this kharif season, as against last year’s 9.77 m ha, Sharad Babu, a Jalgaon-based pulses trader, said: “Higher area will result in more output, provided the climate remains good for one more month.”

Consumption has risen sharply over the past two years, despite volatile prices. During 2010-11, consumption is estimated to rise 0.5 mt to 20 mt. “Even at a price of Rs 100 a kg for tur and Rs 80 a kg for urad, pulses contribute just Rs two-three per meal,” said Himat Nandu of S K Comdex, a Vashi-based trader.

The output could have been better but for the recent rain that damaged some crop, especially in the south. The rain largely damaged the late sown crop, which is currently in the flowering stage. Pulses’ importers said India might lose 10-15 per cent of the kharif crop due to unseasonal rainfall, as farmers could not harvest matured plants due to muddy fields and high moisture. Despite this, the government’s target of 16.5 mt annual crop would be achieved, said traders.

Consumers, though, are unlikely to get the benefit of this season’s higher output, as the government raised the minimum support price (MSP) for pulses significantly this year. However, prices have started declining from peak levels.

Urad prices have declined nearly 25 per cent in the past two months in the benchmark Jalgaon wholesale mandis, from Rs 5,000 a quintal to Rs 3,700-3,800 a qtl now.

Similarly, moong has nosedived to Rs 3,200-3,500 aqtl from Rs 4,800-5,000 a qtl nearly two months ago. Farmers would not sell their output if the price fell further, said Sriganganagar (Rajasthan)-based Jaydev Gupta, a partner of Dhajaram Jaydev.