Fed, Bihar results weigh on FII inflows

In November so far, FIIs have sold shares worth about Rs 430 crore, paring the year- to-date inflows to Rs 25,349 crore

The Bihar election results and the probability of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve might weigh on inflows by overseas investors in the near term.

In November so far, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold shares worth about Rs 430 crore, paring the year to date inflows to Rs 25,349 crore. FIIs have been net sellers in the months of May, June, August and September this calendar year, with August seeing the most outflows to the tune of Rs 17,200 crore.

“Caste politics took precedence over development in 2014. But it is not right to jump to conclusions and say that everything will go for a toss for the Central government from now on,” said U R Bhat, managing director, Dalton Capital Advisors (India).

NOT SO ROSY NUMBERS

• FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 430 cr in November so far, paring the year-to-date inflows to Rs 25,349 crore
• Foreign investors have been net sellers in May, June, August & September
• August saw the highest outflows this year, of Rs 17,200 crore

In the last two sessions, Indian equities have slid about two per cent. On Monday, the benchmark indices began trading with a sharp gap down and slid about 2.3 per cent but recovered in the latter half of the day to end lower by about 0.5 per cent. On Tuesday, the Sensex ended the day lower by 378 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 25,743, while the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 131 points or 1.7 per cent at 7,783.  

State elections can determine seat shares in the Rajya Sabha. The Centre has seen delays in key legislations, including the land Bill and the goods and services tax Bill, due to lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Bihar contributes to 16 Rajya Sabha seats.

Besides the election outcome, the better-than-expected US jobs data over the weekend — which has increased the probability of the US Fed raising interest rate in December — is also likely to weigh on the market.

The addition of 271,000 non-farm payroll jobs in the US in October has exceeded analyst estimates. What’s more, the unemployment rate fell to five per cent, the lowest level since April 2008, from 5.1 per cent in September. The jobless rate is now reportedly seen as comfortable by many Fed officials.

However, industry observers believe that the impact of an imminent hike is likely to be minimum. “It's an event which the markets have been anticipating for the last one year and a lot of the impact has already been discounted,” said Bhat. “As long as India continues to grow at at a rate of more than seven per cent and the impact of reforms start showing on ground, the country will continue to be an attractive destination to overseas investors,” he added.

The impending portfolio review for the MSCI India index, slated for November 12, is also likely to weigh on the market going forward, said experts. The MSCI index is widely tracked by Indian stock watchers overseas. The MSCI is likely to include overseas-listed Chinese shares to its emerging market indices, with China’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Market Index expected to rise to over 26 per cent from around 23 per cent. This could lead to some outflows from India, experts believe.