Global cereal output to rise 8.4%, says FAO

Early prospects for the winter wheat crops already planted in the northern hemisphere, to be harvested in 2014, are mostly favourable

This year, global cereal output is likely to touch an all-time high, owing to favourable climatic conditions and an improvement in seed and soil fertility.

Data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations show cereal output may stand at 2,500 million tonnes (mt) this year, 8.4 per cent higher than last year and six per cent more than the previous record in 2011. In a report, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, FAO estimated this year, wheat production would rise 7.8 per cent, coarse grains 12 per cent and rice one per cent.

Prospects for the winter wheat crop already planted in the northern hemisphere, to be harvested in 2014, are favourable. Major producers likely to record increased wheat acreage are the European Union, China, the US and India, Russia and Ukraine are estimated to report lower acreage. World stocks are estimated to rise to 572 mt by the end of the 2014 crop season, an annual rise of 13.4 per cent. The forecast is nine mt higher than the forecast in November.

The sharp rise in global cereal stocks would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio of 23.5 per cent. The historical low of 18.4 per cent was registered in 2007-08.

World cereal balance sheet (million tonnes)
Particulars	2011	2012*	2013#
Production	2352.9	2305.1	2499.8
Trade	319.4	309.4	317.8
Utilisation	2326.4	2323.1	2412.7
Stocks	519.2	504.5	572.3
Source : Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), * Estimate, # Forecast

While global cereal production was expected to rise, FAO warned food security conditions in several parts of Africa, as well as in other regions, were deteriorating. In the Sahelian countries of west Africa —Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal — crops and pastures were affected this year by the late onset and early cessation of rains. This could lead to a surge in food insecurity and malnutrition in the 2013-14 marketing year.

In Central African Republic, 1.3 million need emergency food assistance due to the civil unrest there.

In November, the FAO Food Price Index remained stable---it averaged 206.3 points, almost unchanged from 206.6 points in October, though 9.5 points (4.4 per cent) below the figure in November 2012. Last month, a sharp decline in sugar prices nearly offset the rise in oils. Though cereals averaged slightly lower, meat and dairy product prices were stable. The index measures the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of five commodity groups, including 73 price quotations.