India to have record rice output in 2010-11: USDA

With expectations high for a good monsoon, India was likely to produce 99 million tonnes of rice in the crop year starting July 1, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said in a recent report.

The expected output is only marginally lower than the 2008-09 record of 99.18 million tonnes. The country’s rice output has taken a big hit in the current year, dropping to 87.5 million tonnes, owing to poor monsoon rains hitting plantings in the main kharif season.

Monsoon rains in India were 22% below normal last year—the worst in 37 years—hitting sowing of kharif crops in rain-fed areas. The India Meteorological Department has forecast a “normal” monsoon in 2010, with Jun-Sep rains at 98% of the long period average, raising hopes of a better kharif harvest this year.

“Rice production is expected to rebound in India in 2010-11 with the return of a normal monsoon. A recovery in both area and yield is expected, and the 2010-11 production is forecast at 99 million tonnes, fractionally below the 2008-09 record,” the report said.

It said along with India, nine other major rice-producing countries—China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, Brazil and Japan—were expected to produce larger rice crops in 2010-11, as continued concerns over food security motivated production increases.

Higher output in major rice producing countries was likely to push 2010-11 global rice production to a record 459.7 million tonnes, up 4% on year, the agency said. It said global rice trade too was expected to increase 5 per cent on year to 31.35 million tonnes in 2011 amid larger supplies available in exporting countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, India and Pakistan.

USDA sees Thailand exporting 10 million tonnes of rice in 2011, up 500,000 tonnes from this year, and Vietnam selling 5.8 million tonnes, slightly higher on year. The agency said rice exports from India and Pakistan too were expected to increase by about 300,000 tonnes each to 2.5 million and 3 million, respectively.

Though India has banned exports of non-basmati rice since 2007, its basmati rice exports have been growing steadily on the back of higher demand from the West Asian and European countries. USDA said ample supplies and expectations of a record global rice crop were keeping export prices under pressure.

Export price for Thailand’s 100 per cent grade B milled rice fell to $482 a tonne in the week ended May 10, down nearly 7 per cent on month. Export prices for lower grades of Thai rice also declined about 8-9 per cent from a month-ago levels.