Jeera prices set to touch new high on short supply, high demand

Chinese demand boosts the exports from India

The price of jeera (cumin) has reached a historic high of Rs 3,800 per 20 kg at the Unjha mandi (wholesale market) in Gujarat's Mehsana district on tight supply, coupled with good export and domestic demand. Traders say the price might continue rising for some months. As against a demand of about 12,000 bags (55 kg each), the current supply is around 5,000 bags at Unjha, the biggest jeera mandi in Asia. In two months, the price has gone up by Rs 400-500 per 20-kg bag.

“China and Bangladesh have bought jeera heavily so far and export demand is likely to continue to witness an upside, as other producing countries are not well placed for supplies. On the other hand, domestic supply is also tight, which lifted up prices, and it might move up further,” said Vimal Patel, owner of Ambalal Lalludas from Unjha. By sector estimates, China imported 18,000-20,000 tonnes in April-May from India. Exports during April-June were about 45,000 tonnes, sharply up from 27,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.

Patel said, “Looking at the current scenario of supply and stocks, if demand continues in August, the price might touch Rs 4,000 per 20-kg. Because of good prices in the past three months, almost 80 per cent of the total production has already arrived in the market.”

Experts say the trend will depend on export demand in the coming days. Export of jeera fell 37 per cent in 2015-16 to 98,700 tonnes, also lower than the Spices Board's target of 100,000 tonnes. Shipments fell as unseasonable rain at the time of harvesting had affected quality of the crop. However, export in 2016-17 (April-March) is projected to exceed last year's target, with a better quality crop.“Industrial buyers have already sourced sufficient quantity for domestic requirements but the export demand might pick up due to good demand from China and other countries, as stock levels there have been lower. In the next few months, the prices will depend on export demand,” said Ajay Kedia, of Kedia Commodity Comtrade.

Futures prices have also moved up to a new high of Rs 19,000 a quintal. Total stocks at warehouses accredited to the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) as of Wednesday had increased to 5,186 tonnes from 3,499 tonnes a month before, and from 3,002 tonnes three months earlier.

Vishidha Vijayakumar, research analyst at Geofin Comtrade, said: "Prices are expected to trade higher due to limited availability of the spice and expectations of strong overseas demand. On the technical side, as long as the price on the domestic exchange is able to trade above Rs 18,700, it could see bullishness continue towards Rs 19,600-20,000 and even to Rs 20,500 a quintal.”