MCX Crude Oil can fall to Rs 5,900; Natural Gas may soon test Rs 500-mark

The MCX Crude Oil October futures are likely to test major support of 100-WMA around the Rs 5,900-level. Whereas, for the week, Rs 530-level is the key support for Natural Gas futures.

The overall trend for both the energy-based commodities - Crude Oil and Natural Gas is negative as per the charts. The MCX Crude Oil futures seem on course to test the 100-WMA placed at Rs 5,900-level, while the Natural Gas futures could soon test the 200-DMA around the Rs 500-mark.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 6,490

Resistance: Rs 6,820

Support: Rs 5,900

Since the start of September, the MCX Crude Oil futures have constantly drifted lower, with the upside seen capped at its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average). The price-to-moving averages action remains clearly in favour of the bears, and the short-term bias is likely to remain bearish as long as the commodity trades below its 20-DMA, now placed at Rs 6,820-level.

On the downside, the commodity is seen attempting to hold on the support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart at Rs 6,380-odd level. Sustained trade below the same, can trigger a fall towards the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) - indicating a downside target of Rs 5,900.

On the broader time-frame, Crude Oil prices are seen on course to test the 200-WMA - which currently stand around Rs 4,700-level. For the broader trend to reverse, Crude Oil futures will need to break and sustain above Rs 7,200-level on a consistent basis.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil October futures are likely to exhibit high volatility in the week ahead. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures are likely to test Rs 6,660 - Rs 6,730 - Rs 6800. Whereas, on the downside during the course of the week, Crude Oil prices can dip to Rs 6,200 - Rs 6,140 - Rs 6,070.

On Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil October futures may trade in a range of Rs 6,370 to Rs 6,610, wherein the commodity may seek support around Rs 6,445 - Rs 6,415 - Rs 6,395. On the upside, the Crude Oil contract may counter resistance around Rs 6,530 - Rs 6,565 - Rs 6,585. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 563.40

Resistance: Rs 520; Rs 636.60

Support: Rs 530; Rs 509

During the course of last week, the MCX Natural Gas futures has witnessed formation of 'Death Cross' on the daily chart, with its 20-DMA slipping below the 50-DMA. Further, the 20-DMA is now on the verge to drop below the 100-DMA. The 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs are currently placed at Rs 636.60, Rs 668.20 and Rs 627.80, respectively.

As per the daily chart, the Natural Gas prices are likely to soon test the 200-DMA, which now stands at Rs 509-odd level, below which the next significant support is at Rs 482 - its 50-WMA.

Overall, the bias is likely to remain bearish as long as the commodity trades below Rs 620. Select key momentum oscillators, both on the daily and the weekly charts, are also negative. However, select indicators like the Slow Stochastic and the MACD are showing some signs of a pullback on the daily chart.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Natural Gas October futures have given a minor 'Buy' signal for the week. Thus during the course of this week, Natural Gas prices can test Rs 593.40 - Rs 605.80 - Rs 618.20 on the upside. On the other hand, break and trade below Rs 530-level, can trigger a fall to Rs 513 - Rs 500.60 - Rs 608.20.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas October futures are likely to trade in a range of Rs 542.40 to Rs 584.40. The contract may seek support around Rs 550.40 - Rs 546.40, while on the upside it may face resistance around Rs 576.40 - Rs 580.40.