Gold may head lower, support seen at Rs 48,900 levels; silver range-bound

The 48,900-level is the 100-WMA for MCX Gold October futures, below which the next support stands around Rs 44,500 - 200-WMA. Momentum oscillators indicate a mixed outlook for MCX Silver f

The MCX Gold and Silver futures have been trading in a restricted band for the last two weeks. While the bias for Gold remains negative, momentum oscillators indicate a mixed outlook for the white metal. 

Gold

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 49,399

Support: Rs 48,900

Resistance: Rs 51,000

The MCX Gold October futures attempted a pullback, but were unable to overcome the twin-hurdle around the 50,100-odd level, in the form of 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average).

At the same time on the positive side, Gold prices have managed to hold on to its recent lows near Rs 49,000-level, which also coincides with the all-important 100-WMA at Rs 48,900-level.

A breakout from this particular trading range of Rs 48,900 - Rs 50,100, is likely to set the future trend for Gold prices. Currently, the bias and the momentum seem to be in favour of the bears. Break and sustained trade below Rs 48,900, shall open the doors for a sharper fall towards Rs 44,500-level - its 200-WMA.

Also read: India's gold demand may cross China's: World Gold Council's John Reade
 

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week Gold October futures may trade in a broad range of Rs 48,700 to Rs 50,100; with support likely around Rs 49,150 - Rs 48,970 - Rs 48,835 and resistance expected around Rs 49,650 - Rs 49,830 - Rs 49,965. 

On Monday, MCX Gold 1 kg futures may seek support around Rs 49,220 - Rs 49,090 - Rs 48,900, while on the upside the October contract could face resistance around Rs 49,575 - Rs 49,705 - Rs 49,900.

Similarly, MCX Gold Mini October futures are likely to seek support around Rs 49,195 - Rs 49,070 - Rs 48,890; the contract may face resistance around Rs 49,525 - Rs 49,650 - Rs 49,825.

Silver

Bias: Neutral

Last Close: Rs 56,275

Resistance: Rs 58,500; Rs 59,000

Support: Rs 56,000; Rs 55,000

For the last two weeks, the MCX Silver futures have been trading in a broad range of Rs 56,000 - Rs 58,500, which are the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, respectively. As per the weekly chart, the commodity is failing to overcome the hurdle at 20-WMA, placed at Rs 57,800, on a closing basis.

The key momentum oscillators are showing a mixed bias for the commodity, with select key momentum oscillators in overbought zone on the daily chart, while other indicators are on the verge of turning positive on the weekly chart.

Going ahead, in case, Silver futures are able to break and sustain above Rs 58,500, the commodity can test Rs 59,000-level, and also potentially rally to Rs 61,440 - its 200-DMA. 

On the flip side, in case, Silver futures break and trade below the Rs 56,000-level, the commodity could test its 20-DMA at Rs 55,000, below which a steep fall to Rs 51,300 seems possible.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver December futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 54,775 to Rs 57,775; with support expected around Rs 55,740 - Rs 55,350 - Rs 55,060. On the upside, Silver futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 56,800 - Rs 57,200 - Rs 57,490.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 55,790 - Rs 55,435 - Rs 54,915, while on the upside the commodity could face resistance around Rs 56,760 - Rs 57,115 - Rs 57,635.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini November futures may seek support around Rs 56,315 - Rs 55,990 - Rs 55,510; while the Mini contract could face resistance around Rs 57,210 - Rs 57,540 - Rs 58,020 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro November futures could seek support around Rs 56,430 - Rs 56,110 - Rs 55,640 and might face resistance around Rs 57,310 - Rs 57,630 - Rs 58,100 today.