MCX Crude Oil futures likely to consolidate, Rs 6,200 seen as major support

On the upside, the MCX Crude Oil December futures can test Rs 7,200 to Rs 7,400 levels during the consolidation phase.

The MCX Crude Oil December futures were seen testing the key support at its 100-WMA in the recent fall. As long as the support at 100-WMA stands, the energy-based commodity could consolidate with a possibility of testing Rs 7,200 - Rs 7,400 on the upside. 

Crude Oil

Bias: Consolidation likely

Last close: Rs 6,723

Resistance: Rs 7,210; Rs 7,420

Support: Rs 6,210

The MCX Crude Oil December futures tumbled as much as 19 per cent in the last two weeks, with the short-term trend turning negative on the weekly chart. The energy-based commodity tested the support at its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 6,208-odd level, and then has bounced back.

The overall trend continues to remain negative, both, on the daily and the weekly chart. For now, near support can be expected around Rs 6,500-level, which is where the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart stands, followed by the major support at the 100-WMA.

As long as the commodity is able to hold the support at 100-WMA, Crude Oil prices could consolidate in the coming trading sessions, with a possibility of a pull-back to Rs 7,210 (100-day Daily Moving Average) or even higher to Rs 7,420 (50-WMA).

Given the recent sharp fall, the key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly charts are in favour of the bears. As a word of caution, break and sustained trade below Rs 6,200-level, could open the doors for a steeper fall towards the 200-WMA, now placed at Rs 4,850-odd level.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil December futures have near resistance at Rs 6,810, followed by Rs 6,925 and Rs 7,035. On the downside, the commodity could slip back to Rs 6,240, or test lower levels of Rs 6,085 - Rs 5,865.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Thursday, the MCX Crude Oil XXX futures are likely to seek support around Rs 6,650 - Rs 6,625 - Rs 6,600. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures could face resistance around Rs 6,800 - Rs 6,820 - Rs 6,845. 

Natural Gas

Last close: Rs 552

Target: Rs 590

Support: Rs 529

The MCX Natural Gas November futures has pulled-back after seeking support at its 20-DMA. The energy-based commodity contract that expires today can extend the pull-back to near Rs 590-odd level on the upside.

Key momentum oscillators on the daily chart - like the 14-day RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastic are all in favour of the bulls. In case of a downside, the commodity could test support at its 50-DMA, now placed at Rs 529 level.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas November futures are likely to seek support around Rs 542.90 - Rs 536.10 - Rs 526.30, whereas on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 567.90 - Rs 572.80 - Rs 577.70.