MCX Crude Oil may re-test Rs 7,700 soon; Natural Gas needs to hold Rs 518

On the downside, the MCX Crude Oil futures can decline to Rs 7,110-level. On the other hand, Natural Gas futures are likely to test support around Rs 487-level; the bias remains negative.

The MCX Crude Oil November futures have given a buy signal on the weekly Fibonacci chart; hence the commodity may witness a sharp pullback during the course of the week towards Rs 7,700--odd level. On the other hand, Natural Gas futures need to sustain above Rs 518 for a meaningful bounce.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative; short-term pullback possible

Last close: Rs 7,340

Support: Rs 7,215; Rs 7,030

Resistance: Rs 7,710

The MCX Crude Oil futures once again has retraced after testing resistance at its 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average), placed at Rs 7,710. The commodity has been unable to sustain above the same, since it broke down in early August 2022. However, the frequent attempts to overcome the 200-DMA, shows the strong intent of the bulls.

For now, the Crude Oil prices have dipped below the 100-DMA too placed at Rs 7,400, and seem headed towards the 20-DMA at Rs 7,215. The next immediate support for the energy-based commodity is placed at Rs 7,030 - its 50-DMA.

On the weekly scale, the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) has dipped below the 50-WMA after almost a year. Thus, indicating that the short-to-medium term trend may remain tepid for the commodity. 

However, select momentum oscillators like the MACD in (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) in particular has turned positive on the weekly chart, thus raising hopes of a possible turnaround.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil November futures have given a buy signal for the week. During the course of the week, the commodity may re-test the weekly high or even scale a fresh high. On the downside, Crude Oil futures are likely to seek support around Rs 7,300 - Rs 7,240, below which prices may fall near to Rs 7,110-level.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, On Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil November futures are likely to seek support around Rs 7,305 - Rs 7,285 - Rs 7,250. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures may face resistance around Rs 7,370 - Rs 7,395 - Rs 7,430. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 500.10

Target: Rs 407

Support: Rs 487

Resistance: Rs 590

The MCX Natural Gas November futures have witnessed heavy volatility so far this week, with the commodity swinging in almost Rs 100-point range. Eventually, the sharp up move fell apart with the commodity facing considerable resistance around the 100-DMA at Rs 588.

Natural Gas futures are now seen re-testing the 20-DMA placed at Rs 489 level, below which the next major support lies at Rs 407 - the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart.

The overall bias remains negative, as the commodity not only trades below key moving averages, but also the price-to-moving average action is in favour of the bears, with the short-term moving averages placed below the long-term moving averages.

However, select momentum oscillators like the MACD and 14-day RSI seem to be in favour of an upside, hence some near-term pullback cannot be ruled out. Having said that, the upside for Natural Gas futures seem capped around the Rs 590-level for now.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the November contract of Natural Gas seems on course to test the lower-end of the support range at Rs 494.70 - Rs 487.60 - Rs 480.40. On the upside, the commodity needs to sustain above Rs 517.90, for a decent up move.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas futures may seek support around Rs 487.10 - Rs 477.60 - Rs 463.70, while on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 513 - Rs 522.60 - Rs 536.50.