Strong support for MCX Crude Oil seen at Rs 6,850, Natural Gas at Rs 475

On the upside, MCX Crude Oil November futures can jump to Rs 7,250-level, whereas Natural Gas futures can gain momentum above Rs 510-level.

The MCX Crude Oil November futures are seen testing support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. Similarly, Natural Gas futures are testing support around the 20-DMA. Hence, a short-term pullback in these energy based commodity seems possible.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative; short-term pullback possible

Last close: Rs 7,041

Target: Rs 6,360

Support: Rs 6,850

Resistance: Rs 7,253; Rs 7,411

After testing the higher-end of the anticipated trading band earlier this month, the MCX Crude Oil futures are now seen testing support at the lower-end of the anticipated trading around Rs 6,850.

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart indicate a likely trading band of Rs 6,850 - Rs 7,550, with a possibility of upside extension towards the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 7,710-odd level.

However, the weekly chart seems to be a cause of worry for Crude Oil futures with the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 7,253 is below the 50-WMA at Rs 7,411. As such, the short-to-medium trend is likely to remain negative.

On the downside, Crude Oil futures could test supports around the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart at Rs 6,360-odd level, and further lower at Rs 6,184 wherein the 100-WMA stands.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil November futures so far have not given any clear indication. The November contract could seek support around Rs 6,830 - Rs 6,740 - Rs 6,650 this week. Whereas, on the upside, the commodity could face resistance around Rs 7,415 - Rs 7,505 - Rs 7,595.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Thursday, the MCX Crude Oil November futures are likely to seek support around Rs 6,990 - Rs 6,920 - Rs 6,895. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures may face resistance around Rs 7,130 - Rs 7,160 - Rs 7,190. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Short-term pullback likely

Last close: Rs 492.90

Target: Rs 560

Support: Rs 475

Resistance: Rs 510

The MCX Natural Gas November futures have been testing support around the 20-DMA at Rs 485-odd level for the last five trading sessions. In case, the commodity breaks and sustains below Rs 485, a slide to Rs 412 seem possible - which is the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.

The price-to-moving average action remains negative for Natural Gas futures, as the short-term moving averages are placed well below the long-term moving average.

On the weekly scale, the commodity is seen testing support around the 50-WMA at Rs 498-odd level, below which the next major support is at Rs 400-mark - the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas November contract has given a buy signal. The bias for the remainder of the week is likely to remain positive as long as the commodity trades above Rs 475. The up move is likely to gain momentum on sustained trade above Rs 510. On the upside, the commodity could surge to Rs 560.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas futures are likely to seek support around Rs 486.40 - Rs 481.60 - Rs 474.70, whereas on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 504 - Rs 507.70 - Rs 511.10.