MCX Crude Oil may turn rangebound; Natural Gas tests key support at Rs 520

The MCX Crude Oil futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 6,900 - Rs 7,770 in the near term. Natural Gas futures can pullback to Rs 580, is support at Rs 520 is sustained.

The MCX Crude Oil futures may remain trapped between the key moving averages for some time, indicating a broader trading range of Rs 6,900 to Rs 7,770. On the other hand, the MCX Natural Gas futures were seen testing the key 200-DMA support once again, if the energy-based commodity can sustain above Rs 520, prices can pullback to Rs 580 this week.

Crude Oil

Bias: Range-bound

Last close: Rs 7,375

Support: Rs 7,064; Rs 6,896

Resistance: Rs 7,607; Rs 7,770

After briefly crossing the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) in recent days, the MCX Crude Oil futures has once again turned volatile as the fight between bulls and bears got intense around the all-important psychological level. 

The MCX Crude Oil October contract is currently trapped between the key moving averages, with the 200-DMA and 100-DMA at Rs 7,607 and Rs 7,770 acting as key resistances; whereas on the downside, the 50-DMA and the 20-DMA are at Rs 7,064 and Rs 6,896, are likely to act as good support points.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI and the MACD are in favour of the bulls on the daily chart, while the Slow Stochastic is showing some signs of tiredness. On the other hand, the RSI and Slow Stochastic seem to be favourble on the weekly chart, while the MACD remains negative.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil October futures so far were seen testing support at the weekly S1 (Rs 7,240), below which the next key support levels are at Rs 7,120 and Rs 7,000-mark. On the upside, the Crude Oil prices need to break and sustain above Rs 7,627, for fresh gains to emerge this week.

On Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil October contract may seek support around Rs 7,295 - Rs 7,270 - Rs 7,240. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures could face resistance around Rs 7,455 - Rs 7,480 - Rs 7,505. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Testing 200-DMA

Last close: Rs 544.30

Target: Rs 625

Resistance: Rs 587

Support: Rs 520; Rs 494

After testing resistance at its 20-DMA, the MCX Natural Gas October futures have once again slipped back to test support around the key 200-DMA on the daily chart.

The 200-DMA support currently stands at Rs 520, below which the next near support is at Rs 494 - the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The key momentum oscillators are in neutral mode, hence a directional call at this juncture seems difficult. 

For now, Natural Gas prices may look to trade between Rs 494 and its 20-DMA at Rs 587-odd level indicates the daily chart. As per the weekly chart, the next significant support for the commodity is seen at Rs 488 - its 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average).

On the upside, sustained trade above Rs 587 can trigger a rally towards Rs 623 and Rs 651 - its 100-DMA and 50-DMA, respectively.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Natural Gas October futures have good support around Rs 520-level, which if maintained, the commodity could bounce back towards the Rs 580-level.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas futures are likely to seek support around Rs 535.50 - Rs 532.70 - Rs 530, while on the upside the energy-based commodity may face resistance around Rs 553.10 - Rs 555.90 - Rs 558.60.