MCX Crude Oil futures seem range-bound; Bias positive for Natural Gas

The MCX Natural Gas May futures are likely to trade with a bullish bias in May as long as the commodity holds above Rs 576-level.

Crude Oil

Bias: Range-bound

Last close: 7,892 

Support: Rs 7,520

Resistance: Rs 8,100

The MCX Crude Oil May futures are seen consolidating in a broad trading range of Rs 7,100 to Rs 8,500 since the last six weeks. However, the overall bias as per the weekly charts remains positive as the commodity has constantly found support around its 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) placed at Rs 7,200-odd level on a closing basis.

Presently, the daily charts indicates lack of direction with supports seen at Rs 7,920 and Rs 7,780 - its 50-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and 20-DMA, respectively. As long as these levels are held crude oil futures can attempt a pull-back towards Rs 8,380-odd level - indicates the higher-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts.

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, the bias for the remainder of the week seems capped around Rs 8,100 on the upside, whereas the oil futures can slide to Rs 7,630 and Rs 7,520 on the downside.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Wednesday, MCX Crude Oil prices are likely to seek support around Rs 7,813 - 7,789 - 7,764; whereas on the upside may face resistance around Rs 7,970 - 7,995 - 8,020.

Natural Gas

Bias: Positive

Last close: Rs 598.50

Support: Rs 586

Resistance: Rs 610

The MCX Natural Gas May futures zoomed past the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily charts, but eventually closed marginally below it on profit-taking at higher levels. The commodity closed at Rs 598.50 odd levels in a holiday-shortened trading session on Tuesday as against the resistance at Rs 606.50-odd level.

Having said that, the momentum on the daily charts continues to remain in favour of the bulls. Further, the weekly charts indicates that the bias is likely to favour the bulls as long as the commodity sustain above Rs 586-odd level. The key support as per the monthly chart lies at Rs 550-odd level.

Among the momentum oscillators on the weekly charts, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) and the ADX (Average Directional Index) are fairly in favour of the bullish bias. The RSI too seems to be on a steady upmove.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the bias for the rest of the week is likely to remain bullish as long as MCX Natural Gas May futures sustain above Rs 576-odd level. On teh upside, the commodity needs to trade and sustain above Rs 610 level for further momentum. The monthly Fibonacci chart indicates likely target of Rs 634.40 and Rs 657.50 on the upside for the commodity in May.

As per the daily chart, Natural Gas futures on Wednesday may seek support around Rs 588.20 - 585 - 581.80; whereas on the upside may face resistance around Rs 608.80 - 612 - 615.20.