Mobius shrugs off terror impact, stays bullish on India

India’s first terrorist attack against foreigners has done nothing to dent Mark Mobius’ confidence in the stock market of the world’s second-fastest growing major economy.

Mobius, executive chairman of San Mateo, California-based Templeton Asset Management, says any stock declines may be shortlived as India’s economy is still ‘vibrant’ and the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index is valued near the cheapest level on record relative to profit. AMP Capital Investors also expects any declines spurred by the attacks on two luxury hotels in India’s financial capital to be short-lived.

The Sensex rose 1.1 per cent to 9,127.89 at 2:18 pm in Mumbai, after falling 1.5 per cent earlier. The exchanges were shut yesterday after militants stormed into the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel and the Oberoi Trident complex. At least 121 people were killed and 279 injured.

“It’s a fast-growing economy and we can’t allow this kind of incident to sway our decisions regarding where we want to invest,” Mobius, 72, said in an interview from Hong Kong. “India will rise from this and prosper.”

S&P CNX Nifty Index futures for December delivery rose 3.1 per cent to 2,767.0 as of 4:51 pm in Singapore trading, the highest in almost two weeks, after falling 2.7 per cent yesterday. The rupee fell 1.1 per cent to 50.045, the biggest drop in more than two weeks.

Stocks also rose after India¿s economy grew at a faster- than-expected pace. Asia¿s third-largest economy expanded 7.6 percent in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, after a 7.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median forecast of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for 7.2 percent growth.

Infosys Technologies Ltd., India¿s second-largest computer- services provider, rose 3 percent to 1,222.45 rupees. Reliance Industries Ltd., the country¿s biggest company by value, gained 1.4 percent to 1,152.8 rupees.

The assaults were the latest blow to investors after the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression sparked this year¿s 54 percent drop in the Sensex stock index, the biggest annual decline on record.

International investors sold a record $13.5 billion in Indian equities this year as of Nov. 24, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, as global credit losses and writedowns approached $1 trillion. Investors bought a record $17.4 billion in 2007.

In this environment of extreme risk aversion, the bombing probably will give investors a fright,¿ said Alistair Thompson, who helps manage Asian and global emerging market assets at First State Investments in Singapore. ¿India was facing challenges anyway with massive amounts of foreign money leaving in droves.

This year¿s slump has left the Sensex index valued at 9 times the earnings of its 30 companies, less than half the four- year average of 19.3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge traded at 8.4 times profit last week, the cheapest level since at least 2002.

¿Stock prices have been hammered to death,¿ said Seth Freeman, who overseas $130 million as chief executive officer of EM Capital Management LLC. ¿I wish we had more capital to deploy at this point.

India¿s Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram predicted last week economic growth will ¿bounce back¿ to 9 percent in 2009, from at least 7 percent this year, driven by record crop plantings, public sector pay increases and tax breaks. The International Monetary Fund in Washington said this month that India may expand 6.3 percent in 2009, the fastest after China among the world¿s 20 biggest economies.

The Sensex¿s drop this year has still been smaller than China¿s CSI 300 Index, which fell 66 percent, and Russia¿s ruble-denominated Micex Index, which lost 73 percent. Brazil is the only one of the so-called BRIC nations to outperform India, with the Bovespa Index losing 43 percent.