Monsoon deficit to affect cotton growers

If deficit continues, production may decline as much as 50% year-on-year

Deficit monsoon is likely to affect cotton growers in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka. 

A 50% shortfall in rainfall till now may pull down production by 20% in some pockets of these states. If rains continue to be poor in the next ten days too, a drought-like situation may exist, cutting production by 50% year-on-year. This could result in sharp fall in this season’s cotton crop, with fall estimated between 5 to 12% by various intermediaries.  

Most farmers have preferred to replicate last year’s area under cotton this season despite lower prices last year. 

The total cotton arrival in the country was registered at 37.761 million bales (one bale=170 kilogram) as on 3 September. With 10% decrease in acreage and deficit rains, experts have pegged a crop size of 35 million bales for 2015-16. 

Cotton association of India is expecting crop to be around 38 million bales while the Cotton Corporation of India is estimating crop around 37 million bales. Cotton production has declined from 40.73 million bales in 2013-14 to an estimated 38 million bales in 2014-15 and a projected 35 million bales in 2015-16. 

Cotton prices, meanwhile, have firmed up by Rs 1,000 per candy (one candy = 356 kilograms) in the last three weeks. The prices have spiralled as traders are liquidating stock in anticipation of late arrivals of cotton.

Pradeep Jain, the president of cotton ginning and pressing factories association, Jalgaon (Maharashtra) said that the prospect of more rains are bleak and production may fall up to half of last year. 

A farmer gets 10-12 quintal an acre of yield in ideal conditions and he may get about 8 quintal an acre this year. Against estimated arrivals of 7.5 million bales (one bale = 170 kilogram) last year, we may get about 4.5 million bales this year.

Marathwada and Khandesh in Maharashtra are worse affected this season in the wake of weak monsoon and Vidarbha is less effected, he added.

The harvesting may also get delayed here by a fortnight as insufficient rain slows down the growth of plant.

Karnataka growers are also projecting subdued arrivals of about 1.5 million bales against 3.2 million in FY14-15. The major districts effected in Karnataka are Dharwad, Bijapur, Belgam and Gulbarga.

The delayed and less arrivals may also keep the prices high, restricting the role of Cotton Corporation of India with MSP (Minimum Support Price) operations.

Cotton arrivals in Gujarat may also remain in the range of 8.5-9 million against 10.8 of current year. The President of All Gujarat Ginners’ Association, Dilip Bhai Patel said that irrigated area of North Gujarat may not be affected much but Saurashtra would register a drop in production. Districts of Botad, Bhavnagar, Surendra Nagar could see a dent in arrivals as compared to last year, he added.

Also, the cotton crop in Punjab has been infected by white flies and cotton growing areas of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are reeling under this crop disease. The irrigated cotton belt of north-west (Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan) is expected to lose 10% of the crop, said Bhagwan Bansal of Punjab Ginning Millers’ Association. The crop arrival till Thursday in Punjab is 1.2 million bales, Haryana 2.05 million bales and Rajasthan is 1.7 million bales.

The states of Telengana and Andhra Pradesh have been steady with their crop and have got sufficient rains. A mild shower in next week may help the two states get good crop. Telengana has recorded 5.7 million bales and Andhra has recorded 2.69 million bales till Thursday.

The Cotton Corporation of India had stock of 2.5 million bales as of today and is expected to have an opening stock of 1 million bales on 1 October, 2015.

CCI chairman B K Mishra said that the estimated size of crop in 2015-16 may remain close to 37 million. The CCI has exported about 70,000 bales in the current season and the exports may touch upto 100,000 bales depending upon the market conditions, he said.