Nickel plunges into bear market on biggest glut in 4 years

At a time of scarcity in everything from crude oil to copper to corn, nickel is heading for the biggest glut in four years, driving prices lower into 2012.

Next year’s surplus will rise to 60,000 metric tons from 12,000 tons in 2011, making nickel the most oversupplied metal relative to output or use, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over two years.

New mines will boost supply 11 percent in 2012, the most in 17 years, Macquarie Group Ltd. says. Prices may drop 12 percent to $20,000 a ton by Dec. 31, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts and traders shows.

“I’m not particularly optimistic about nickel,” said Ian Henderson, who manages about $10 billion of natural-resource assets at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, including the Global Natural Resources Fund, which doubled in two years.

“I don’t think there is a commercial logic for the price where it is on Monday. A nickel price of $15,000 is entirely possible.”

While raw-material producers are failing to extract enough copper and oil and droughts threaten crops, nickel supply is expanding faster than demand.

Prices reached a record $51,800 in 2007 and moved at least 63 percent a year since then, leading consumers to use more substitutes than in any other major commodity, Macquarie says.

Prices may drop 12 percent to $20,000 a ton by Dec. 31, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts and traders shows.