Nifty inches close to breakout

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex exhibited extremely narrow rangebound movement throughout the week and finally ended with a loss of 123 points at 9,301. However, the index held near the support levels of 9,020.

With a loss of 22 points, DLF was the biggest loser among the 30 stocks, which make up the benchmark. Other losers include Hindalco, Jaiprakash Associates, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Infrastructure, which shed 7-10 per cent each.

Grasim was the major gainer in the week, rising 18 per cent, while ACC, Ranbaxy, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Bharat Heavy Electricals gained 3-7 per cent each. The Sensex moved in a narrow band of 347 points — a high of 9,365, and a low of 9,017. Positive global cues may help the index start higher. However, for a convicted strong upmove, the index needs to clear the strong resistance around 9,425-9,650-9,830 in the coming days.

As long the 9,020 support holds, the index may attempt to break on the higher side. In case of a downside break of 9,020, the index may slip to 8,725-8,435.

The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty moved in a range 2,873 and 2,753, before finally ending the week 32 points lower at 2,843. In the coming days, the Nifty may spike up to 2,960. For a considerable continued upmove, the index needs to sustain levels above 2,960.

The bollinger bands on the Nifty have narrowed down to a range of 220 points i.e. 2,900 to 2,682.

Hence, the chances of a breakout are very high this week. In case, the index breaks above the 2,900-level, the index needs to sustain above 2,900 for atleast two or three trading sessions for a continued uptrend.