Nifty outlook and stock picks by Sameet Chavan: Buy Balrampur Chini, Pfizer

Nifty outlook

Trading last week started on a sluggish note on Monday morning as indicated by the SGX Nifty. However things worsened as the day progressed to test sub-14,500 levels. Fortunately, there was no further damage done as we witnessed a gradual recovery throughout the remaining part of the week to reclaim the 14800 mark on a closing basis; but ended with a

negligible loss as compared to the previous weekly close.

Overall, if we see, major indices have gone nowhere as it was a week of boredom and consolidation for them. There were one or two odd days when we witnessed some action in index heavyweights; but didn’t last too long as breakout attempts on either sides were turned unsuccessful. In the upward direction, we were seeing 14,900 as a crucial hurdle on a closing basis and after nearly twelve trading sessions, bulls attempted to break this barrier on an intraday basis; but failed to maintain at the close. So 14,900 – 15,000 continues to remain a sturdy wall and till the time we do not surpass it, major heavyweights are not going to give any sustainable up move. Yes, at the same time, it’s not falling either; in fact, the undertone remained bullish for the major part of the week. On the lower side, 14,700, followed by 14,550 are to be seen as immediate supports.
 

The deciding factor in days to come has to be the financial space. Since last couple of weeks, the banking index has been hovering around its strong support zone of 32,200 – 32,400 which is the breakout point on the budget day as well as the ’89-EMA’ on daily chart. It has managed to hold this till now and if any recovery has to take place, there will not be a better place than this.
 

But in our sense, if any bottom (short or long term) is to be formed; it does not give so many opportunities for the bulls to get in as it has been giving in last few days. It just happens in a flash and takes off before anyone could realize. This is clearly not the case at present and hence, the more it challenges any particular support, the higher it creates possibility of breaking it. Hence, all eyes would be on this development as it is likely to dictate the near term direction for the market. Throughout last week, a lot of thematic moves kept buzzing and hence, one can definitely keep tracking such potential candidates; but avoid being complacent at the same time.

Stock recommendations:

NSE Scrip Code – BALRAMPUR CHINI

View – Bullish

Last close – Rs. 234.30

Justification – The tide completely turned upwards for the cyclical commodity ‘Sugar’ and so as for this counter after May 2020. Since then the stock prices have been witnessing an unstoppable steep rise for nearly 10 months and it’s still not done yet. In the week gone by, we could see yet another breakout taking place after coming out of its recent congestion zone. On such breakout points, volume plays a vital role and in this case, we can see sizable activity on the volume front, providing credence to the move. We recommend going long around 230 –226 for a target of Rs 255 in coming days. The strict stop loss can be placed at Rs 213.

NSE Scrip Code – PFIZER

View – Bullish

Last close – Rs 4,802.05

Justification – The entire ‘Pharma’ space underwent a decent time wise as well as price wise correction over the past two months. After a brief pause, they seemed to have resumed their larger degree uptrend. Most of the bigger peers have already moved quite well in last 5 – 6 trading sessions, but ‘PFIZER’ remained quiet all this while. On Friday, the stock prices finally took off to come out of its recent consolidation range. In this process, it has managed to convincingly traverse two key moving averages mainly, ’89-EMA’ and ‘200-SMA’ along with more than average daily volume. We recommend going long on a small dip towards 4,750 for a target of Rs 5,100. The strict stop loss can be placed at Rs 4,550.

NSE Scrip Code – BAJAJ FINANCE

View – Bearish

Last close – Rs 4,872.30

Justification – The financial space has been the real dragger over the past month and a half. In fact, in the week gone by although the broader market was buzzing, this stock kept sulking. Since last few days, prices have been hovering around its ’89-EMA’ on daily chart. However on Friday, the stock prices failed to hold this support as we witnessed a decisive break down below 4,900. Looking at this price development, further weakness in coming days cannot be ruled out. Traders are advised to short for a target of Rs 4,600. The stop loss can be maintained at Rs 5,010.

Disclaimer: Sameet Chavan is Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives at Angel Broking. The analyst may have positions in one or more stocks. Views are personal.