One decisive session in either direction could define the trend

Global sentiment weakened after the Bank of Japan stood pat and refused to indulge in further easing last week. As a result, there has been a sell off across global markets and India is also under pressure. India-investors are also focussed on politics. Parliament is in session with the Agusta scandal at centrestage and assembly elections are also in progress. Results season has been good so far with an apparent pick-up in earnings and revenue.

But, the sell-off has come at an interesting point. The Nifty moved above its own 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA) briefly but it has now traded down. It is poised almost exactly at the 200-DMA and one decisive session in either direction could define the trend.

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• The long-term trend may have changed to bullish
• 200-DMA breach indicates positive trend
• Short-term signals are bullish
• Uptrend likely to last till RBI policy meet
• Big resistance at current Nifty zone of 7,500-7,650

The Nifty failed to cross resistance at around 8,000 and a pullback below the 200-DMA (now at around 7,847) could mean that the entire rally from 6,825 till 7,990 has terminated. The long-term trend looked to have turned. But, this cannot be confirmed until the Nifty moves, say three per cent (200 points or so) above or below the 200-DMA. In terms of Fibonacci retracement levels, that post-Budget rally of eight weeks could see a retracement till 7,550 (first level) or till 7,400.

Breadth was good until the downtrend started last week. Volumes are reasonable. As always, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are having a big say because they have sold heavily. The rupee had strengthened on the dovish outlook from the US FOMC but the FII selling has pushed it down against the dollar. The yen has also gained.

Most information technology stocks are inversely correlated to the rupee and liable to gain if the rupee continues to fall. However, the Nifty Bank has been dominating news. The Q4 was projected to be bad for public sector banks (PSBs) but even private majors like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have produced very high provisioning.

The Nifty Bank has taken quite a beating despite good numbers from HDFC Bank, YES Bank and IndusInd. It could slide more if the big PSBs like State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, etc, announce poor results. On the other hand, a bounce is also possible if the PSBs have decent results. A strangle with a long 16,000p (161), long 17,000c (218) is almost zero-delta with the Nifty Bank at 16,527. This has break-evens at roughly 15,600, 17,420 so a swing of 900-points would be necessary. That is three trending sessions in either direction. Open interest (OI) in the Nifty call option chain for May has a big peak at 8,200c and then tapers off but there is good OI until 8,500c. The May put chain has big peaks at 7,800p, 7,700p, 7,500p and 7,000p. The Nifty's put-call ratios (PCR) look oversold at around 0.9 but PCRs are not very reliable just after settlement. The Nifty closed at 7,804 on Monday. The straddle of 7,800p (107), 7,800c (146) would cost 253, the asymmetric premiums indicate that traders are optimistic. In general, premium is quite high, which is normal at this stage of settlement.

A bullspread of long May 7,900c (95) short 8,000c (58) costs 37 and pays a maximum 63 and it's about 100 points from money. This is relatively expensive. If the market does fall, a short 7,900c, long 8,000c could be taken for a few sessions and then reversed.

A bearspread of long 7,700p (73), short 7,600p (49) costs 24 with a maximum payout of 76. The combined spread would be a long 7,900c, long 7,700p, short 8,000c, short 7,600p, a set of long-short strangle, with a cost of 61, and an adverse payoff ratio.