Pepper output likely to fall by half on erratic rains

About 70% of India's pepper consumption is met through local supply

Erratic rain has hit black pepper production. Latest estimates from producing states show in the harvest season beginning December, the output will be 50 per cent lower. Estimates by growers and dealers from Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu indicates overall production will stand at 30,000-35,000 tonnes, against 70,0000 tonnes in the last season.

‘This shortfall will definitely take the market to a much higher level next year,” said Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises, a leading pepper export house. Currently, prices stand at Rs 625-650/kg; analysts expect this to rise to Rs 700-750.

About 70 per cent of India’s pepper consumption is met through local supply.

Globally, overall output is likely to be steady, as reports from Vietnam indicate higher production. Jazvinder Singh, an analyst based in Vietnam , said production in Vietnam would rise sue to better weather conditions and an increase in acreage. According to estimates, the overall output is expected at 160,000 tonnes next year, against 140,000 tonnes this year. As of now, Vietnam is importing from Indonesia. Singh estimates carry-forward stock in Vietnam at about 8,000 tonnes.

In Indonesia, where harvesting has been completed, the output stands at around 70,000 tonnes, compared with the last season’s 52,000 tonnes.

Dealers from Kattappana and Sultan Battery in Kerala said growers weren’t releasing carry-over stocks, as they expected prices to rise significantly next year.

Growers said low rain during the monsoon this year had hit pepper output. According to Benny Panikkankudy, a farmer, production might fall as much as 70 per cent in some areas in the Western Ghats. Reports from Coorg in Karnataka also forecast a steep fall in production.

Analysts say the average rainfall this monsoon season was 14 per cent lower this year. In Kerala, the figure stood at 24 per cent. In April-June this year, India’s pepper exports stood at 10,750 tonnes, valued at Rs 636 crore, 148 per cent more in volume terms and 201 per cent in value terms compared to the corresponding period of 2014-15.