Positive internals a sign of optimism

TECHNICALS

The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2760:1106. The capitalisation of breadth on a commensurate basis was also positive as the figures were Rs 10171 crore:Rs 6325 crore. The f&o data for the session indicates a build-up in short positions as bears took fresh exposure on upthrusts.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the selling pressure in select heavyweights kept the benchmarks lower. But for this pressure, the headline indices would have closed significantly higher.

The market internals remained positive even as the oriental charts indicated a "failed morning attack" formation. The higher tops and bottoms formation remained intact and leaves room for an upmove in the coming session.

The 4100 / 3930 range advocated for Monday was tested on the upside, though the breakout could not be sustained. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 3960 on declines and 4100 on advances.

Should the 4100 level be overcome with brute force, 4185 maybe likely. The bulls will have to keep the average traded price of the Nifty spot above the 4080 to achieve these objectives.

The outlook for the market on Tuesday is that of continued optimism as the bulls are likely to have another go at the markets. Overseas cues remaining positive will be an additional positive. Avoid the temptation to short the market for now.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com

Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.