Pulses output may be down, price outlook bullish

With the output of pulses expected to be less this year, the possibility of rising prices in the segment is high. The delayed onset of monsoons led to farmers shifting from urad and moong to soybean and cotton. Tur output is also expected to be lower, partly due to delay in the monsoon and also owing to high carryover stock.

India is a net importer of pulses. Burma and Africa are the main suppliers of pulses during the kharif season. Production in Burma is expected to be the same as last year, while tur production in Africa is expected to be lower.

As for rabi sowing, though the average rainfall for the season has been four per cent higher than last year, the distribution was uneven. Rain is crucial to maintain soil moisture levels. As planting is in progress, the area numbers are not clear. It will be so only by the first week of December. The weather during this period would be crucial.

On chana, Gujarat, UP and MP have received good rain, so the planting trend will be upwards. However, the main growing states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka & Andhra have received deficit rainfall; so, a reduction in planting can be expected. In total, there could a slight drop in the sowing area, despite the government announcing a higher minimum support price. With domestic production down, we’ll have to import. Production in Australia, one of the main suppliers, is expected to be lower by about 100,000 tonnes, so this would buoy global prices.

As for peas, the sowing area in MP & UP, the main growing states, should see an increase due to good monsoons and higher price realisation. In Canada, the largest supplier of peas to international trade, the output is expected to be down by a million tonnes, thereby creating a deficit in world markets. Canada supplied 1.8 mt to India last year; this is expected to fall to 1 mt this year. And, China has emerged as a big buyer and this should help tighten available supply, boosting world prices.

The writer is president, India Pulses and Grains Association