Short-term outlook for the market remains negative: Devang Shah

NIFTY CLOSE- 10,113.70  (28.03.2018)

Market sharply bounced back from lower levels in this truncated week after achieving first short term targets levels. It closed weekly in positive territory. It made a low of 9,951.90 levels on Nifty & 32,483.84 levels on Sensex so far in this correction. It has retraced almost 38.2% in this correction near recent lows indicating one of possibility of short term bottom as per daily chart but one should follow trend till it reverses or get any kind of confirmation further to finally collude end of short term correction. All the other Indices such as midcap & smallcap also closed weekly in positive territory.

It looks like wave-X pull back rally as preferred wave count so far as per daily chart attached in short term. And one more final leg of Wave-Z correction is still pending towards second short term targets levels as mentioned below. 10,300-10,350 range on Nifty looks strong resistance levels for short term. It may remain is thin range of 10,000-10,350 levels on Nifty before decisive trend at either of side in short term.

Short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 10,479 levels and expecting target of 9,925-9,870-9,700 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12,000-12,200 levels in medium term.

It looks like TIME wise wave-IV correction & will last it at least till March end before final wave-V UP begins as per my expectation. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.

BANK NIFTY also closed weekly in positive territory. It has also sharply bounced back after achieving first short term targets levels. It also looks like wave-X Pull back rally as preferred wave count so far as per chart attached in short term. And one more final leg of Wave-Z correction is still pending towards second short term targets levels in the range of 23,440-23,100 levels till short term reverses. 25,090 levels is crucial resistance & reversal levels for short term.

  

10,000 & 10,500 levels is strong support & resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data so far for next month series. Market will remain very volatile in this corrective phase. 

Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD both came in to BUY indicating volatility to remain in short term. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close above short term reversal levels will finally confirm further rally towards medium term higher levels targets.

Stock Picks: 

BATA- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-728

TARGET – Rs 755-775
 

BATA closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 712 for the target of Rs 755/775 levels in short-term. 
 

NALCO- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-66.15

TARGET – Rs 72-75
 

NALCO closed the weekly in negative territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 63 for the target of Rs 72/75 levels in short-term. 
 

L&T FIN- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-157

TARGET – Rs 165-170
 

L&T FIN closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 151 for the target of Rs 165/170 levels in short-term. 
 

INDUSIND BANK- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-1805

TARGET – Rs 1850-1900
 

INDUSIND BANK closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Its extending in short term. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 1730 for the target of Rs 1850-1900 levels in short-term. 
 

DHFL- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-514

TARGET – Rs 568-590
 

DHFL closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 480 for the target of Rs 568-590 levels in short-term.
 

Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above