Sugar output not to exceed 24.5 mt: Food ministry

The food ministry has estimated sugar production in the sugar season starting October at 24.2-24.5 million tonnes (mt), based on data from states. Sources said a final figure would be arrived at after a meeting of cane commissioners scheduled for next week.

In the 2011-12 season, production was an estimated 26.2 mt. Officials say though the revival in the monsoon towards the end of the kharif season would aid production, it is unlikely this would exceed 24.5 mt. They added even when sugarcane production had been good, recovery in the initial part of the kharif season had been affected due to low rain.

Sugarcane sowing is estimated at 5.28 million hectares and productivity, according to the first advance estimate, would stand at about 34.2 mt, marginally less than last year’s figure. Officials say while acreage and production might be only marginally lower, output of sugarcane is expected to decline, owing to the low rains. Delayed rains this year were expected to maintain recovery at last year’s level of 9.5-10 per cent, officials said.

India’s annual consumption of sugar is 22-23 mt. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma) has reportedly projected sufficient availability of sugar in the domestic market, despite fears of a 30 per cent drop in production in Maharashtra during the 2012-13 crushing season. This, however, would be offset by enhanced production in Uttar Pradesh, another key producing state, reports show.

According to industry reports, apart from low rains, Maharashtra also saw diversion of sugarcane into fodder, owing to lucrative prices and fears of low rains in the kharif season. Last year, Maharashtra contributed 8.9 mt to India’s 26-mt output. With the ongoing cane diversion, production in Maharashtra is set to decline to 6.2 mt. In Uttar Pradesh, however, farmers have reportedly planted cane in an additional 90,000 hectares, about four per cent higher than last year, prompted by a high state-advised price for sugarcane last year. So far, sugarcane sowing in Uttar Pradesh has increased to 2.36 million hectares, against 2.27 million hectares last year, according to government data.