Tech check: Gold to see fresh rally only above Rs 54,400, Silver Rs 68,600

The overall bias for MCX Gold December futures is likely to remain bullish as long as the contract sustains above Rs 53,850, and Silver above Rs 65,950.

The MCX Gold and Silver futures are likely to trade with a positive bias as long as they sustain above Rs 53,850 and Rs 65,950, respectively. On the upside, Gold needs to trade and sustain above Rs 54,400, Silver above Rs 68,600 for a fresh rally to emerge.

Gold

Bias: Positive

Last Close: Rs 54,300

Target: Rs 55,550

Support: Rs 53,850; Rs 53,650

Resistance: Rs 54,400

The MCX Gold February futures rallied nearly 5 per cent in the last three weeks, with Gold topping the Rs 55,000-mark for the first time since early March 2022. Select momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly chart seem to be overheated; hence Gold prices may consolidate in the near term.

Having said that, the overall bias is likely to remain bullish as long as Gold futures trade above Rs 53,850-level indicates the monthly chart. On the upside, MCX Gold can re-test its May high at Rs 55,558 level, above which the next target will be Rs 56,200.

As per the weekly chart, Gold prices need to sustain above Rs 54,400 for continue upward momentum. Failure to sustain above the same may trigger a consolidation. As per the daily chart, near support for the Gold is seen at its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 53,360 level. 

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI is seen near the overbought territory. More importantly, the MACD seems to be on the verge of giving a negative divergence.

To sum it up, the bias shall remain positive as long as Gold futures manage to sustain above the Rs 53,850 - Rs 53,360 support zone. On the positive, the up move may gain momentum on sustained trade above Rs 54,400.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week MCX Gold February futures may gyrate in a range of Rs 53,580 to Rs 55,020, with the precious metal seen seeking support around Rs 54,045 - Rs 53,850 - Rs 53,715, and likely to face resistance around Rs 54,555 - Rs 54,750 - Rs 54,880.

On Monday, the MCX Gold February futures are likely to seek support around Rs 54,210 - Rs 54,145 - Rs 54,045, while on the upside the contract may counter resistance around Rs 54,455 - Rs 54,505 - Rs 54,550.

Similarly, the MCX Gold Mini January futures could seek support around Rs 53,875 - Rs 53,815 - Rs 53,725, and on the upside the contract is likely to face resistance around Rs 54,100 - Rs 54,145 - Rs 54,190 today.

Silver

Bias: Positive

Last Close: Rs 67,650

Target: Rs 71,350; Rs 71,650

Support: Rs 65,950; Rs 65,000

Resistance: Rs 68,600

The MCX Silver futures broke its three-week winning streak last week after registering a high at Rs 69,575. The Silver March futures dipped as much as 4 per cent in intra-week trades, but eventually settled at Rs 67,650 - down 0.6 per cent for the week.

The overall bias for Silver remains bullish, as Silver prices currently trade above all its key moving averages. For the record, Silver futures have managed to sustain above the 20-DMA since the start of November 2022.

As per the weekly chart, Silver futures seem to be facing some resistance around the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands at Rs 68,600-level. The commodity needs to sustain above the same on a consistent basis for a fresh rally to emerge. 

On the flip side, in case, Silver fails to sustain above Rs 68,600 level, the commodity may witness some consolidation. On the downside, the commodity may dip to its 20-DMA at Rs 65,000 level, whereas the weekly chart indicates strong support for Silver at Rs 63,650 - its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average).

As per the monthly Fibonacci chart, Silver March futures are likely to trade with a bullish bias as long as they hold above Rs 65,950.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver March futures may swing in a broad range of Rs 65,900 to Rs 69,400. The white metal could seek support around Rs 67,025 - Rs 66,565 - Rs 66,230, while may face resistance can be expected around Rs 68,275 - Rs 68,735 - Rs 69,070.

On Monday, Silver March futures are likely to seek support around Rs 67,400 - Rs 67,220 - Rs 66,955, while on the upside the Silver prices may face resistance around Rs 68,080 - Rs 68,210 - Rs 68,345.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini February futures could seek support around Rs 67,400 - Rs 67,235 - Rs 67,000; whereas the Mini contract may counter resistance around Rs 68,015 - Rs 68,135 - Rs 68,250 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro February futures are likely to seek support around Rs 67,400 - Rs 67,230 - Rs 67,000; whereas the contract could face resistance around Rs 68,000 - Rs 68,120 - Rs 68,240 today.