Wkly Tech Analysis: Sensex may be on course to 18k

The Sensex ended the holiday-shortened week by gaining 442 points due to the prevailing positive sentiment. While the index touched a fresh 16-month high of 17,196, it also reclaimed the 17,000-mark for two consecutive days on a closing basis. It finally ended the three-day week at 17,135.

Among the index stocks — ICICI Bank jumped over 10 per cent to Rs 924. TCS, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Reliance Communications, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra and BHEL soared 5-8 per cent each. On the other hand, Grasim shed nearly 5 per cent at Rs 2,701. Tata Motors and HDFC declined 2 per cent each.

Although, the rise lacked momentum, it has been steady showing some sector rotation. Rally laggards IT and pharma stocks are now seen posting smart gains, while auto and select banking stocks are taking some breather. As a word of caution, some profit taking around these levels are expected. However, the real action would start once the earnings season kicks in.

Charts reveal, that the Sensex is very much on course to hit the 18,000 level, either in October or by the end of this calendar year. The 16,250-16,450 level is likely to remain a base support zone in the short term. A breach of this support zone could see the index slipping down to 14,800. The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 151 points during the week. From a low of 4,959, the index moved up to a high of 5,111, before settling at 5,083, up 2.5 per cent.

The Nifty seems on course to 5,500, although there could be some stoppage around 5,280-5,350. On the downside, the rising trendline support has now moved higher to 4,880 from 4,825 last week. The bollinger bands suggest that the index may face some resistance around 5,160 on the upside, while a sharp correction could see the index tumble to 4,600.